We’ve seen the largest liquidation since the FTX crash
That black swan marked the macro bottom
Here are what the indicators say about a wild reversal👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 06.07.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last week
Next week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Market Updates
Mt. Gox Transfers 47,229 BTC, Market Faces 8% Drop
SEC Sues ConsenSys Over MetaMask's Broker Activities
Bittensor Exploit: $8 Million Stolen, TAO Price Plummets
Polkadot Faces Backlash Over $87 Million Treasury Spending
Spot Solana ETF Fails to Sustain Impact: Kaiko Analysis
Regulatory and Compliance News
Circle Complies With EU's MiCA Regulatory Framework
South Korea Implements Crypto Transaction Monitoring
Corporate Developments
Sony to Launch Crypto Exchange in Japan
Robinhood Crypto Expands to All 50 States
Legal Issues
Binance Scores Partial Win in SEC Case
Blur Marketplace Phishing Scam Costs User $240,000 in NFTs
US Courts to Decide if NFTs Are Securities
Altcoins
Binance added monitoring tags to Balancer, Cortex, PowerPool, Convex Finance, Dock, Kava Lend, IRISnet, MovieBloc, Polkastarter, Status, and Sun.
Aave Labs received a 12-month grant to develop V4 iteration.
LayerZero CEO dismissed claims of critical vulnerability as ‘baseless.’
Tether launched USDT payments for social security contributions in the Philippines.
Pump.fun meme coin launchpad surpassed $50M in revenue.
Starknet Foundation launched DeFi Spring 2.0 with a 90M STRK budget until December 31, 2024.
Token merger of SingularityNET, Fetch.ai, and Ocean Protocol went live.
Solana meme token Chewy soared 15 times in price following Keith Gill’s disclosure.
Coinbase will custody digital assets for the US Marshals Service.
Crypto-friendly Silvergate Bank paid $63M to settle charges with SEC, Fed, and California Regulator.
$3B in token unlocks from ENS to OP are coming.
Pendle saw a 40% drop in TVL.
Denmark did not propose banning self-custody wallets.
ZKsync unveiled a vision for an elastic chain ecosystem after the 3.0 upgrade.
Paxos gained approval for a Singapore stablecoin launch with DBS partnership.
Chromia announced MVP mainnet launch, activating core ecosystem functions.
Pixels team explored crypto game expansion with potential Telegram integration.
Solana meme coin Billy soared to $117 million market cap.
Astar Network burned 350 million ASTR allocation for auction.
Aave launched GHO stablecoin on Arbitrum.
Sentient Labs raised $85 million in seed funding led by Founders Fund, Pantera Capital, and Framework Ventures.
HashKey airdropped its native token via Telegram tap-to-earn game.
Optimism unlocked over 31 million OP tokens worth over $54 million.
DeFi protocol Clearpool launched on Coinbase’s Base blockchain.
Mantra tokenized $500M real estate assets for UAE builder MAG Group.
Fidelity & Sygnum tapped Chainlink for tokenized asset data.
Bitget engaged in ‘active discussions’ to obtain India license.
Sydney Sweeney’s X account was compromised by a fake meme coin.
Holograph protocol was sabotaged by a disgruntled contractor.
Gala Games and Animoca Brands joined forces.
Worldcoin recruited former executives from Google, X, and Apple to improve privacy and security.
KuCoin VAT charge raised concerns among Nigerian crypto community.
Consensys acquired Wallet Guard to enhance MetaMask security.
Venture capitalists invested $3.2 billion in the crypto sector in Q2, as reported by Galaxy Digital.
Indian crypto exchange Coindcx went global with Bitoasis acquisition.
DeFi lender Liquity underwent a “friendly fork” in V2 upgrade.
Blast allocated 10 billion tokens in phase 2 rewards.
Centralized exchange losses to hacks increased by 1,000% this year, according to ImmuneFi.
Toncoin outshined top 50 tokens with over 40% rise in Q2 2024.
Notcoin launched an accelerator to boost Telegram crypto games.
Kamala Harris memecoin surged 250% amid calls for Biden to bow out.
New Zealand cracked down on crypto investors avoiding tax disclosures.
DWF Labs launched $20M Cloudbreak Fund for Chinese projects.
Friend.tech hit an all-time low after announcing it would stay on Base L2.
Tangem introduced a Visa-integrated crypto wallet for secure payments.
ZkSync denied NFT ‘insider minting,’ claiming some minters attended events.
Bybit entered Switzerland’s crypto market amid MiCA regulation implementation.
Jupiter Exchange distributed $60M in rewards; Upbit listed JUP in the Solana ecosystem.
Fake Iggy Azalea token buyers awaited refunds as Sahil Arora appeared to cash out.
Aptos launched keyless wallets that use ZK-proofs to verify identities.
Web3 users reached an all-time high of 10M in Q2, according to DappRadar.
Nomis launched TON reputation score, with the first 1M users getting free scores.
Crypto exchanges became subject to the EU Travel Rule in 6 months.
Binance Labs led a major funding round for Bitcoin wallet UniSat.
3️⃣ Market overview
Macro Markets
Federal Reserve’s Approach: The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts reflects a focus on long-term inflation control and stable employment, signaling that significant policy changes may be gradual.
Political Uncertainty: Joe Biden’s declining approval ratings and pressure from within the Democratic Party highlight potential shifts in the political landscape, impacting market sentiment.
Stock Market Trends: Positive performance in tech stocks and anticipation of economic data indicate cautious optimism among investors, with key economic indicators expected to influence future market movements.
Federal Reserve Policy
Officials emphasize “patience” regarding interest rate cuts, balancing inflation control and employment support.
Inflation: Decreasing to below 3% annually.
Unemployment: Rates remain low.
Future Projections: Inflation not expected to hit 2% target until 2026.
Market Expectations: Futures traders predict rate cuts by mid-September.
US Presidential Election:
Joe Biden: Facing pressure to abandon re-election bid due to low approval ratings and concerns about viability.
Key Figures: Congressman Lloyd Doggett, Democratic lawmakers, and governors express doubts.
Poll Data: CNN poll shows Biden’s approval rating at 36%.
Potential Alternatives: Democratic governors discussing candidates like Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer.
Crypto/Macro Market Sentiment
Bullish Options Sentiment: Positive call-to-put ratio for options expiring in 30 and 60 days indicates bullish investor sentiment despite impending Mt. Gox repayments.
Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts: Potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the second half of the year may provide further support to crypto markets.
Key Summary:
BTC and ETH Decline: BTC fell to $60K and ETH to $3.3K, reflecting a bearish sentiment with the overall crypto market capitalization dropping to $2.4T.
Mt. Gox Repayments: Plans to begin BTC repayments to creditors in July could lead to a sell-off, impacting BTC prices.
Ripple Penalties: SEC sought $102.6 million in penalties from Ripple, influencing XRP demand.
Standard Chartered Bank: Planning a new spot trading desk for BTC and ETH, potentially positive for long-term sentiment.
ECB Interest Rate Cut: ECB cut rates from 4% to 3.75%, aiming to stimulate the eurozone economy.
US Economic Indicators: Producer Price Index declined by 0.2% MoM; Federal Reserve projected four interest rate cuts for next year.
US Presidential Election: Joe Biden and Donald Trump are preparing for the election, with significant public scrutiny on the debates.
Key Insights:
Bearish Immediate Term: The bearish outlook is influenced by anticipated Mt. Gox repayments and Ripple penalties.
Positive Long-Term Sentiment: Institutional interest, as evidenced by Standard Chartered’s trading desk plans, might improve long-term sentiment.
ECB Rate Cut Impact: The ECB’s rate cut could signal similar moves by other central banks, potentially affecting global economic policies.
US Economic Moderation: Decline in Producer Price Index and flat Consumer Price Index suggest moderating inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve’s Projections: Increased number of projected interest rate cuts might support crypto markets by making riskier assets more attractive.
Top Performers:
Brett (BRETT) ⏶72.10%: Boosted by listings on centralized exchanges and integration into Seamless Protocol.
Kaspa (KAS) ⏶32.24%: Surge driven by successful Rust language rewrite, CoinW listing, and exposure at Mining Disrupt.
Notcoin (NOT) ⏶32.06% and Toncoin (TON) ⏶22.14%: Growth driven by TON ecosystem expansion, TVL increase, and gaming sector developments.
Monero (XMR) ⏶11.78%: Benefited from MoneroKon 2024 and market recovery post Binance delisting.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🔴 United States
Despite a 206K increase in nonfarm payrolls, downward revisions and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% indicate a mixed labor market.
Upcoming economic indicators like NFIB Small Business Optimism, CPI, and Producer Price Index will provide further insights into the economic trajectory.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206K in June.
Downward revisions to the prior two months reduced the overall positive impact.
🔴 Japan
Japan’s Tankan Survey Keeps Recovery Outlook Within Reach
The Bank of Japan is likely to delay further rate hikes until October, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed economic data.
Q2 Tankan survey indicates a mixed but generally positive outlook for economic recovery.
Large manufacturers’ index rose to +13, while the large non-manufacturers’ index eased to +33.
Capital spending plans for Japanese enterprises firmed up.
Economic figures remain mixed with a notable decline in Q1 GDP.
The Bank of Japan is expected to wait until October to hike its policy rate further.
🟡 Yield Inversion
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the two-year note two years ago.
The yield curve has remained inverted since then.
This marks the longest period in U.S. history where the yield curve has been inverted without the economy slipping into recession.