Altcoin Season is In: Bitcoin Breaks $100K, Ethereum Hits $4K, and $XRP Rockets to $290B FDV
ToE's Weekly Highlights #86
Altcoin season is in.
Bitcoin smashed past $100K for the second time
Ethereum touched $4K, and the largest crypto airdrop in history launched with $HYPE.
Altcoins soared, with $XRP reaching a staggering $290B FDV, while DeFi tokens and metaverse coins staged a major comeback.
Here's what's driving the BULL market frenzy and the altcoin seasonđđ§ľ
Weekly Updates
The past few weeks have been a whirlwind. Watching my portfolio grow as the market gains momentum has been exhilarating, to say the least. But as much as Iâd love to soak in the optimism of a bull run, thereâs a lesson Iâve learned the hard way: what goes up will eventually come down.
Bull markets are euphoric, but theyâre also traps for the unprepared.
Iâve been reflecting on these cycles, and this time, Iâm determined to approach things differently. Not just to maximize gains, but to protect them. This is how Iâm thinking about my exit strategy, and why I believe the next few months are going to test us all.
The Psychology of Profits
If Iâm honest, taking profits isnât easy. When you see green candles everywhere, the fear of selling too soon can paralyze you.
âWhat if it goes higher?â
âAm I leaving money on the table?â
Iâve asked myself these questions before, and Iâve learned that thereâs no perfect answer. You either sell too early and watch the price soar higher, or hold too long and watch the market erase your gains.
I still think about my SOL position from the last cycle. It was one of my highest-conviction bets. I watched it climb, resisting the urge to sell after a 2x or 3x. By the time I started taking profits, it had done a 7x.
The lesson? Timing your exit isnât about perfection. Itâs about discipline.
Breaking Down My Portfolio
Right now, my portfolio is a mix of long-term conviction plays and short-term narrative trades:
Conviction Plays: These are projects I genuinely believe in. Iâve done my research, I trust the team, and Iâm confident in their long-term potential. For these, Iâm willing to ride out the volatility and delay profit-taking.
Narrative Trades: These are opportunistic plays. Theyâre tied to current hype, catalysts, or trends. I treat these more mechanically, locking in profits as soon as I hit my targets.
This distinction has been critical for me. Itâs helped me stay grounded and avoid the emotional rollercoaster of selling too soon on something I believe inâor holding too long on something thatâs already run its course.
What History Tells Us About This Cycle
The crypto market might feel unpredictable, but itâs shockingly repetitive when you zoom out. The patterns from past cycles are undeniable:
1ď¸âŁ Bull runs typically start ~170 days after the Bitcoin Halving.
2ď¸âŁ They tend to peak around ~480 days post-Halving.
3ď¸âŁ And almost always, thereâs a major BTC correction in the summer following the Halving.
With the last Halving on April 19, 2024, this puts key dates on my radar:
Late May 2025: A potential correction.
Q1âQ2 2025: Likely market peak.
But this cycle has already thrown us a curveball: BTC hit a new ATH before the Halving. Thatâs unusual. Itâs made me rethink my timelines and lean toward taking profits aggressively in Q1 and Q2 of 2025.
Spotlight on ETH and Altcoins
One thing Iâm watching closely is Ethereum. Historically, altseasonâthe period where altcoins outperform Bitcoinâonly kicks into high gear when ETH starts to shine.
So far, this hasnât happened. BTC has been the star of the show, and ETH has taken a backseat. But something shifted recently:
Spot Ethereum ETFs hit an all-time high in daily inflows.
Capital rotation into altcoins seems to be gaining steam.
This matters. ETHâs price action has often been the signal for the real fireworks in the altcoin market. If this momentum continues, I think weâre on the verge of a major shift.
The Hardest Decision: Knowing When to Let Go
Thereâs one thought thatâs stuck with me this cycle:
If I make life-changing money, I need to let go.
It sounds simple, but itâs incredibly difficult in practice. The greed, the âwhat ifâ scenarios, the dopamine rush of watching your portfolio climbâitâs addictive.
But Iâve seen what happens when people donât sell. Gains that seemed untouchable disappear in weeks. Iâve read the stories of people who went from millionaires to nothing because they believed the market had one more leg up.
I donât want to be one of them. If my portfolio hits a number that changes my life, Iâm pressing the sell button. Iâm walking away. And I wonât look back.
Because in the end, unrealized gains arenât profits.
Narrative Overview
Hereâs whatâs been happeningâand where we might be headed next.
Bitcoinâs Chaotic Journey Above $100K
$BTC has been the star of the show, and not always for the right reasons.
After bouncing from $91k, Bitcoin consolidated around $96k, giving altcoins a chance to shine.
On December 5, $BTC smashed through the $100k resistance like a freight train, hitting $104k in record time⌠only to dump just as fast, triggering a flash crash down to $91k on some exchanges.
Whatâs fascinating is that altcoins barely flinched during Bitcoinâs flash crash. At first glance, it looked like alts were showing strength. But as Bitcoin regained its footing above $100k, the illusion quickly faded.
A friendly reminder: bull markets donât come without pullbacks. Stay cautious, avoid excessive leverage, and this should just be another bump in the road.
MicroStrategy Keeps Buying
If thereâs one constant in the crypto space, itâs Michael Saylor. Heâs been on a Bitcoin shopping spree since the Trump victory, and his strategy remains unchanged:
MicroStrategy has $9B in ATM (at-the-market) financing to keep buying Bitcoin.
The firm continues to reduce overall leverage, which positions it to issue convertible bonds later and buy even more $BTC.
Love him or hate him, Saylorâs relentless accumulation is a testament to the institutional belief in Bitcoinâs long-term potential.
Dino Coinsâ Wild Ride: $XRP Takes the Lead
For a while, the âdino coinsâ (old, established projects) stole the spotlight:
$XRP flipped Solanaâs market cap on December 1, then surged 50% higher in just 24 hours. By December 3, $XRP hit $2.9, giving it a $165B market cap and a staggering $290B FDV.
Other dino coins followed suit:
$HBAR 8xâd in a month.
$ADA 4xâd to reach $46B.
$XLM, $IOTA, $VET, and $ALGO all saw 4xâ7x pumps.
If youâre looking to short the bull run, dino coins like $XRP might be worth consideringâbut proceed with caution.
DeFiâs Comeback
As the dino coin hype cooled, attention shifted to DeFiâand itâs been nothing short of a renaissance:
$AAVE rallied +80% in two weeks.
$UNI doubled.
$CRV soared 5x, while $CVX and $SUSHI both achieved nearly 4x gains.
Itâs not just about numbers. DeFi seems to be capturing the narrative again, appealing to retail investors who want exposure to âthe future of finance.â If this trend continues, we might see DeFi projects lead the next leg of the bull market.
Metaverse Coins Are Back
Remember the 2021 metaverse pump? Metaverse coins are staging a quiet comeback:
$SAND led the pack with a 5x pump in a month.
$MANA, $GALA, and $AXS followed, gaining significant traction in early December.
Itâs still too early to call this a full-fledged revival, but the signs are promising.
Real World Assets (RWA): A Normie-Friendly Narrative
One of the most intriguing narratives right now is Real World Assets (RWA). Projects like $ONDO are gaining traction, and for good reason: they bridge the gap between crypto and traditional finance.
$ONDO doubled in November and added another +50% in early December, hitting a $20B FDV.
$RSR saw a brief 3x pump after Paul Atkins (a former advisor for Reserve Protocol) was appointed SEC Chairman, though it has since retraced.
RWA is shaping up to be a category to watch, especially as institutions look for compliant ways to engage with blockchain.
Memecoins: The Mixed Bag
Memecoins have been hit or miss lately. While the overall category underperformed, there were some standout moments:
$PEPE nearly kissed a $12B market cap, closing in on $SHIBâs dominance.
$BABYDOGE had a +150% pump in just three days after Elon Muskâs cryptic tweet.
Newcomers like $MOODENG, $MOG, and $GIGA made waves following their Coinbase listings.
Despite these pumps, the memecoin market remains volatile and unpredictable. Itâs a playground for gamblers, not investors.
ETH and Its Adjacent Ecosystem
Ethereum ($ETH) touched $4,000 in early December but couldnât hold the level, retracing to $3,600. However, ETH-adjacent coins have been thriving:
$ENS pumped +130% in a few days.
$EIGEN reached a new ATH after a 2x pump.
$LDO soared +145% from its November lows.
Among these, I find $LDO particularly undervalued at its current levels. Its role in the Ethereum staking ecosystem could make it a dark horse in this market.
What Else?
HyperLiquidâs $HYPE Token: Launched on November 29, itâs already the largest airdrop in crypto history, with a meteoric rise from $3B to $15B FDV.
AI Agent Sector: Infrastructure projects like $VIRTUAL and $EMP are leading the charge, with both seeing 3xâ7x pumps in recent weeks.
Fantomâs Sonic Network: $FTM avoided a âsell the newsâ crash after the launch of its next-gen blockchain.
$SUI: Reached a staggering $45B FDV on December 6, raising questions about valuation compared to other L1s.