Cycles Don’t Lie, Only Timing Does
Macro Pulse Update 21.06.2025
Another week, same setup: liquidity rising, policy pivot looming, and Bitcoin holding structure.
I’m tracking M2, rate probabilities, and technical confluence.
Right now, we’re in a non-correlation pocket similar to Feb 2025.
July could be the trigger for Rate cuts + rising M2 = macro tailwinds aligning.
Q4 is the window, if BTC holds structure through the current chop, historical patterns point to breakout momentum by October–December.
M2 is expanding again—liquidity drives cycles.
Fed cut odds rising—Polymarket pricing in July action.
BTC structure intact—bull flag under 108K, golden cross confirmed.
Non-correlation pocket—like Feb 2025; 80% of the time, M2 leads BTC.
1. Liquidity Pulse: Global M2 Turns Back Up
Year-on-year growth in the combined M2 money supply of the world’s major central banks has swung firmly positive again after last year’s contraction, a shift that historically precedes risk-asset rallies by one-to-two quarters.
Bitcoin tracks the direction (not the magnitude) of global liquidity roughly 80 % of the time. Sideways zones like the current 100-108 k range represent the other 20 %—temporary “non-correlation pockets” that tend to resolve once the liquidity trend reasserts itself.
2. Policy Watch: July Cut
Fed Governor Chris Waller publicly backed a quarter-point rate cut “as soon as July”, citing cooling inflation, while non-voting regional presidents Mary Daly and Tom Barkin urged patience. The FOMC’s own dot-plot now shows 12 of 19 members pencilling in at least one cut before year-end.
3. Bitcoin Technical Structure Remains Constructive
Golden-cross confirmed: the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day on 22 May—historically a medium-term bullish trigger.
SuperTrend still green: weekly SuperTrend support has held since the 2023 breakout.
Macro trendline test: BTC has respected a rising trendline connecting 25 k → 74 k → 108 k. A close above 108 k would unlock a measured-move target near 133 k.
Range to respect: spot trades near 104–105 k as of Saturday, keeping the bull flag intact.
4. Liquidity + Policy = Q4 Setup
When global M2 is expanding and the Fed pivots from QT to cuts, Bitcoin has historically delivered its strongest quarterly returns (e.g., Q4 2020, Q1 2024). With liquidity already turning and the policy inflection possibly six weeks away, the risk-reward skew into Q4 2025 remains asymmetric to the upside, provided the 100 k floor holds.
5. Market Positioning & Flows
On-chain holdings: Exchange balances are at cycle lows, indicating structural demand from ETFs, treasuries and Asia-based retail.
Corporate treasuries: 61 non-crypto public firms now hold Bitcoin on balance-sheet, echoing MicroStrategy playbook and adding sticky demand.
Derivatives: Funding rates remain neutral, suggesting little excessive leverage despite the grind higher.
👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 21.06.2025, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Previous Week
Next Week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Launches
Hyperwave launched hwHLP, a liquid token earning from Hyperliquidity Provider vault (HLP), with initial pools on Curve and multichain support.
Nectra launched on Citrea testnet, offering BTC-collateralized, permissionless stablecoin loans with nUSD.
Bluefin introduced Spot 2.0 on Sui, combining RFQ and CLMM for enhanced pricing and MEV protection.
Yala integrated RateX, enabling leveraged yield trading, fixed $YU returns, and boosted Berries/RateX points.
Oku integrated Morpho Labs on Base, allowing earning/borrowing directly via Oku using Morpho vaults.
EigenLayer launched EigenCloud, a platform for verifiable agents/services using EigenDA, EigenVerify, and EigenCompute.
Ambient Finance preparing to launch new Perp DEX, promising top-tier feature set.
Updates
Jupiter launched Radar, a mobile feed consolidating dApp updates and customizable DeFi alerts.
Derive launched Derive Pro, a modular trading terminal with LRTs as collateral and portfolio margining.
Ethena Labs integrated USDtb with BUIDL via Securitize, enabling atomic 24/7 swaps and real-time liquidity.
Arbitrum launched ArbOS 40 “Callisto”, integrating Pectra upgrades and enhancing dev UX.
Ether.fi enabled bridging of weETH to Hyperliquid hyperEVM, extending staked ETH utility.
Avalanche added Chaos Labs Proof of Reserves, improving transparency for bridged assets.
CoW Protocol launched Fair Combinatorial Batch Auctions, boosting efficiency and MEV protection.
Euler added ether.fi’s weETH on Avalanche, enabling it as lending collateral.
Compound added wsuperOETHb on Base, allowing up to 8.3x leverage on staking yield.
Echelon added xBTC to Aptos Core Market, allowing 60% LTV borrowing.
Ondo Finance launched Global Markets Alliance, promoting tokenized security standards with major partners.
Plasma capped deposits at $1B, ending its liquidity bootstrapping phase.
Plume integrated Chainlink CCIP, enabling secure multichain messaging and asset transfers.
Mitosis added Binance Wallet support, enhancing onboarding for Matrix/Expedition platforms.
Rumpel Labs launched on Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM, allowing reward points tokenization and yield farming.
Hibachi unveiled Wynn Upgrade on Celestia, a ZK-based privacy CLOB architecture.
Linea now supports CCTP V2 USDC transfers via Wormhole, enabling fast cross-chain transfers.
Moonwell launched USDC Vault on Optimism, combining Morpho yield and OP/WELL rewards.
Airdrops
$SPK claim live via DeFi Saver, eligibility from Spark campaigns, ecosystem use, and Layer3.
Matchain $MAT airdrop claim opened, with 20%+ APY staking and 300K MAT in first month.
Sonic Labs added metaUSD/metaS/sonicUSD for $S airdrop eligibility, rewarding via StabilityDAO and Tokemak.
Spark launched Overdrive, redistributing unclaimed SPK to users staking SPK via Symbiotic by July 29.
LoopedHYPE opened registration for Phase-2 airdrop, rewarding early users with LOOP (45% supply reserved).
Sonic Labs launched $S Airdrop Season 2, removing passive points and enhancing genuine participation rewards.
Galxe launched $FARE airdrop with Fareplay, claimable by top 1,110 Deathmatch participants.
Galxe Earndrop with Tanssi Network launched, 40.5M $TANSSI tokens unlock on mainnet.
Pharos launched incentivized testnet, activity-based rewards hinted.
Kinto to airdrop over $100K in rewards to stakers, with first reveal on July 4.
Farms
Falcon Finance launched Pilot Season, rewarding USDf ecosystem users with “Miles” (up to 40x daily).
Liquity’s BOLD now live on Pendle, with sBOLD and ysyBOLD offering ~7% yield plus 20+ fork exposure.
Yearn launched OEV-Boosted USDC Vault on Morpho, redirecting liquidation MEV to depositors.
OpenEden’s cUSDO pool live on Napier, offering 20x Bills/12x LP points until June 27.
Velodrome listed ultraETH from Dinero, with incentives launching soon.
Euler Frontier launched market for sDOLA, offering fixed-rate looping and $20K incentives.
River launched satUSD+ on Pendle, enabling 5x River Points for PT/YT strategies.
Superform launched PT-SuperUSDC loop strategy on Morpho, offering up to 78.11% APY (5-loop ~31% APY).
InfiniFi uses Ethena assets for 50%+ iUSD backing, boosting yield and offering sENA bonuses.
Kamino reopened kySOL-PT/SOL loop on Exponent, with 5x leverage and 10K $JTO/month for borrowers.
Falcon Finance added USDf suite to Euler Frontier, enabling looping with $60K in incentives.
Issues
Matchain paused Genesis License claiming, fix in progress.
Abstract’s @AbstractChain account compromised, avoid interacting with posts.
Nobitex hacked for $82M, breach claimed by Gonjeshke Darande.
RISC Zero patched critical zkVM bug, partners migrated; $50K bounty paid.
DELV shutting down after 5 years, ending fixed-rate DeFi development.
Meta Pool paused mpETH contract after exploit, team investigating and planning recovery.
Upcoming
Nexus Testnet III launching soon, bringing new features and rewards.
Ink Foundation to launch INK token, with airdrop and Aave-based protocol.
JPMorgan launching JPMD stablecoin on Base, for institutional fast USD transfers.
Spectra expanding to BNB Chain, bringing fixed rates, PT loops, and pool creation tools.
3️⃣ Market overview
Stablecoin Bill Passes Senate
The Senate passed the GENIUS Act (68–30), giving stablecoins a regulatory framework: audits, AML rules, and reserve standards.
Control remains contested—Treasury vs. Fed—pending House approval.
Circle stock up 33%.
Fed Holds Rates, Signals Uncertainty
Rates stay at 4.25%–4.5%, but inflation forecast raised to 3.1% for 2025.
GDP outlook cut to 1.4%. Powell remains cautious amid tariffs and Middle East tension.
Bitcoin steady at $104K.
Tron Eyes IPO via Reverse Merger
Tron plans to go public through SRM Entertainment.
Pledging $210M TRX to seed a treasury and offer dividends.
SRM stock jumped 534%.
Israeli Hackers Burn $90M in Iranian Exchange
Group “Predatory Sparrow” hacked Nobitex, stole $90M, and burned it.
Claim: Iran used it to dodge sanctions.
Nobitex suspended operations.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
US Inflation Remains Low, Tariff Impact Still Pending
Tariff Effects Yet to Materialize
Significant tariffs only began mid-April
Large inventory buildup from Q1 (pre-tariff import surge) is keeping consumer prices steady
Tariff-driven inflation likely to emerge later in the year
Services Prices Decelerating
Services inflation: +3.7% YoY — lowest since Oct 2021
MoM changes show stabilization
Risk ahead: labor shortages from falling immigration could push service wages up
Labor Force Concerns
1 million drop in foreign-born labor force (March–May)
May be due to lower immigration or undocumented workers exiting due to deportation fears
Fed’s Policy Outlook
Inflation data would normally support rate cuts
But Fed is likely to pause on rate moves until:
Tariff impact becomes clearer
Policy stability returns on trade and immigration
Why the US Dollar Is Falling
The dollar’s decline reflects global doubts about:
US economic trajectory
Its long-term geopolitical stability
And its reliability in global trade
This marks a broader shift in investor behavior, from viewing the USD as a “safe haven” to hedging against concentrated US exposure.
1. Tariffs & Trade Uncertainty Undermining Confidence
High tariffs (since April) would typically strengthen the dollar by reducing imports and boosting demand for USD.
Instead, global investors are losing confidence in the US’s trade reliability and role in global commerce.
This has led to a diversification away from USD into currencies like the yen, euro, and Swiss franc.
2. Diminished Geopolitical Trust in the US
Global demand for USD has long been supported by US military alliances and strategic leadership.
With the US potentially reassessing commitments (e.g. the AUKUS submarine deal), allies are boosting their own defense spending.
The shift signals reduced dependence on the US, weakening dollar demand from strategic partners.
3. Growth Expectations Now Favor Other Economies
US economic outlook has been downgraded by analysts in recent months.
In contrast, Eurozone forecasts are improving, making the euro more attractive.
Investors tend to move capital toward economies with better growth prospects, suppressing the USD further.
5️⃣ China Spotlight
China–US Trade Severely Disrupted in May
US Tariffs Cause Sharp Decline in Chinese Exports
Chinese exports to the US plunged 34.5% YoY in May — steepest drop since early pandemic.
Caused by 145% US tariff on Chinese goods during early May, later reduced to 30% after a partial trade deal.
China cut its retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10%.
Global Trade Realignment Evident
While exports to the US fell, China’s exports to others grew:
EU: +12%
Japan: +6.2%
Taiwan: +7.5%
Australia: +12.6%
Southeast Asia: +14.8%
Surge to Southeast Asia suggests transshipment of goods/components bound for the US.
Rare Earths Take Center Stage
Rare earth mineral exports rose 23% MoM.
US-China talks (set for London) will address rare earths and tariff rollback.
US wants export restrictions lifted, while China seeks reduced tariffs and fewer US tech restrictions.
China holds 60% of rare earth mining and 85% of processing—a strategic leverage point.
China’s Imports Fall for Fourth Straight Month
Total imports down 3.8% YoY, including an 18% drop from the US.
Likely due to China’s own tariffs and reduced demand for US-bound inputs.
Imports from other countries increased, signaling a global rebalancing.
Investment Outlook Uncertain
Ongoing trade tensions likely to dampen cross-border investment.
Traditional alternatives like Vietnam now in question after the US proposed (and postponed) a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods.
Global firms face uncertainty over where to shift production as US policy remains unpredictable.
US–China Trade Deal: Highlights & Implications
Key Terms of the Deal
US Gains Full Access to Chinese rare earth minerals and magnets — a major win for critical tech and defense supply chains.
Chinese Students: Will be allowed to obtain US study visas again.
Tariffs Remain High:
US tariffs: Up to 55% — includes:
10% baseline (applied to most countries)
20% fentanyl-related tariffs
Up to 25% product-specific tariffs from Trump’s first term
China tariffs: Held at 10%
Policy Ambiguity Remains
Tariff structure on other countries still unclear — making production relocation decisions difficult for multinationals.
No update on US export restrictions on high-tech goods — a major unresolved issue for China.
Legal uncertainty: US tariffs previously ruled illegal by a lower court remain in place pending Appeals Court review (July 31).
Market Reaction
Initial boost in equities post-announcement
But markets closed slightly down for the day
Bond yields unchanged, indicating muted longer-term sentiment
Business Impact
Tariffs of up to 55% may discourage imports or cause significant price hikes
US companies face strong pressure to move production — but lack of clarity on alternative destinations complicates strategy