Macro Pulse Update 02.11.2024
Playbook and target still stay the same.
Next target: $120k
November is the ultimate setup month
Early dips begging to be bought, early-month lows and then strong finish to end the month👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 02.11.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ BRICS Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last Week
Next Week
Historically, November has been a month of early lows and strong late-month highs for BTC, particularly in bullish macro climates.
This pattern suggests that dips at the start of November are often setups for substantial gains by month’s end.
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Banking and Regulatory Updates
Consensys Reduces Workforce, Criticizes SEC's Regulatory Actions
Visa Partners with Coinbase for Instant Crypto Transactions
Franklin Templeton Expands Fund to Base Blockchain
SEC Issues Wells Notice to Immutable Over IMX Token
Market Trends and Investments
Robinhood Launches Election Prediction Contracts Amid Competition
Coinbase Shares Drop 14% After Missing Q3 Estimates
Tether Reports $7.7 Billion Profit in 2024
Legal and Lawsuits
FTX Settles $228 Million Lawsuit with Bybit
Crypto Exchange and Platform Developments
dYdX and Kraken Announce Major Layoffs
Blockchain Gaming and NFTs
Pudgy Penguins Enters Mobile Gaming with Blockchain Integration
Lamborghini Launches NFT Collectibles on Coinbase's Base
NBA Topshot Sales Surge as Season Starts
Altcoins
Kraken, BOB, and Swell drove Optimism Superchain’s expansion.
Phantom wallet downtime caused inaccurate balances during GRASS airdrop.
Ethena team was accused of misusing 180M ENA tokens for farming Sats.
Alchemy unveiled Layer 1 blockchain to enhance crypto payments.
Truth Terminal founder’s X account was hacked to promote a new token.
Binance launched 'Binance Wealth' for elite users and used Amazon AI to speed up verification.
Gemini secured regulatory approval in Singapore amid Asian expansion.
Solayer launched the first yield-bearing stablecoin backed by T-Bills on Solana.
AI bot Tee Hee He turned $1.5K into $1.88M in 5 hours.
VanEck planned Solana staking for institutional investors.
DWF Labs fired a partner over alleged misconduct, announcing leadership changes.
Starknet hit 857 TPS, averaging 127.5 TPS in a stress test.
Ondo Finance partnered with trillion-dollar Wellington Management.
1inch suffered a major hack in a supply chain attack.
Kraken released a customizable trading app inspired by Cryptowatch.
Securitize reached $1 billion in tokenized assets and launched a fund administration service.
Reddit sold most of its crypto holdings due to falling ad revenue.
CZ appeared publicly at Binance Blockchain Week Dubai after release.
Trump’s crypto business cut its fundraising goal by 90% after low sales.
MrBeast was reportedly linked to over 50 crypto wallets allegedly used for insider trading.
TON Foundation introduced a new Society DAO governance model.
ZetaChain resumed block production after a six-hour halt.
Paxos launched a USD-backed stablecoin, USDG, with DBS Bank.
Morph public chain mainnet officially launched on Ethereum.
Florida CFO advocated for Bitcoin in state pension funds.
Danish crypto holders face up to 53% capital gains tax, highest globally.
Italy’s finance minister defended the 42% crypto capital gains tax plan.
BNB Foundation completed a $1.07 billion quarterly token burn.
SingularityDAO merges with Cogito Finance and SelfKey after community approval.
UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum.
Notable Fundings:
Ellipsis Labs: $21M
Glow Labs: $30M
Nillion: $25M
Citrea: $14M
Gelato Network: $11M
3️⃣ Market overview
Crypto Market
Bitcoin Nears All-Time High, Rate Cuts Could Spark More Gains - Bitcoin broke past $73K this week, driven by bullish sentiment and potential Fed rate cuts, briefly pulling back to $70K amid a broader tech dip.
$870M Inflows Into Bitcoin ETFs Signal Growing Investor Confidence - Spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $870 million in a single day, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. This trend marks stronger institutional interest as bitcoin nears record highs.
Florida Eyes Bitcoin for Pension Funds - Florida CFO pushes for bitcoin in state pensions, highlighting crypto’s potential as a diversification tool. This move could inspire broader public fund integration.
HKEX Launches Crypto Index Series for Asia - HKEX will offer real-time BTC and ETH price indexes starting November 15, solidifying Hong Kong’s leadership in the Asian crypto market.
NBA Top Shot NFTs Surge 94% as New Season Ignites Fan Interest - Weekly sales for NBA Top Shot hit a six-month high, showing strong fan engagement despite overall NFT market cooling.
BOJ's Potential Shift to Rate Hikes
Japan’s central bank is preparing for a policy pivot that could impact global currency markets, particularly as the yen strengthens. This potential rate hike would be Japan’s first in years and may attract investors seeking yield, influencing yen-denominated asset flows and Japan’s export competitiveness.
UK Fiscal Policies Stir Debt and Yield Concerns
Labour’s budget has raised borrowing and debt issuance to levels that could strain the gilt market, while slower revenue growth may hinder debt recovery. Elevated borrowing costs might pressure UK corporations, especially domestically focused sectors, amid rising inflation expectations.
U.S. Tech Sector Drives Market Volatility Amid Rate Sensitivity
With higher interest rates and cautious spending, U.S. tech stocks face increasing volatility, impacting major indices. Companies investing heavily in AI, like Meta, may face scrutiny on profitability and cash flow resilience as macroeconomic pressures mount.
Global Rate Path Uncertainty
Mixed signals from Japan, the UK, and the U.S. create a complex rate environment. With the U.S. nearing potential rate cuts but the UK and Japan leaning toward tightening, the global investment landscape could see diverging capital flows.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🔴 US Economy Perception vs. Reality
Americans' negative view on the economy contrasts with strong fundamentals (high GDP growth, low unemployment, stable inflation) due to lingering inflation from food prices, high interest rates, and political biases. The disconnect highlights resilience but also reflects consumer sensitivity to post-pandemic price shifts.
🟡 Rising US Bond Yields Boost Dollar
A 60-basis-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields has strengthened the dollar, especially against the yen, as the resilient US economy shifts Fed policy expectations. Global investors are recalibrating currency values in response to this yield differential.
🟢 Fed’s Cautious Path on Rate Cuts
The Fed is likely to proceed gradually with rate cuts, balancing economic strength with inflation control. Any signs of persistent inflation or growth could prompt pauses, suggesting a careful approach to avoid overstimulation.
🟡 Election-Driven Fiscal Policy Impact
The election outcome will shape fiscal policy: expansive agendas from both candidates may lift inflation, especially with added trade tariffs. A divided Congress could limit these effects, keeping inflationary pressures in check.
🔴 BOJ Policy Uncertainty and Yen’s Path
The yen’s future hinges on BOJ policy adjustments and Fed moves. Should the BOJ signal continued tightening, the yen could strengthen, though global monetary policy coordination will be key in determining its trajectory.
5️⃣ BRICS Spotlight🔴
BRICS Seeks Alternatives to Dollar Dependence - Frustrated by sanctions, Russia proposes a BRICS currency and a new “BRICS bridge” for transactions, aiming to reduce reliance on the dollar.
Sanctions Concerns Curb BRICS Unity - While BRICS explores economic resilience, concerns about US sanctions and strong Western ties limit enthusiasm for a unified currency.
BRICS Aims to Counter G7’s Influence - Despite representing a third of global GDP, BRICS faces challenges in cohesion, unlike the more unified G7.
Focus on Commodities Cooperation - Russia’s push for a BRICS grain exchange showcases potential in specific sectors, though differing priorities may limit broader cooperation.