Macro Pulse Update 09.11.2024
The setup couldn’t be better:
🇺🇸 US turns pro-crypto for the first time
🏦 Bitcoin strategic reserve on the horizon
💥 BTC breaking out after 7-month hold
🤖 First pro-Bitcoin President launching DeFi
🔗 TradFi preparing to tokenize everything
💸 Global liquidity about to surge
The historic bull run you are waiting for👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 09.11.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last week
Next week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Key Political and Market Shifts
Trump Sparks Crypto Boom
Payment and Banking Innovations
Sheetz Expands Crypto Payments
UBS Launches Tokenized Fund
Crypto Exchange and Trading Updates
CEX Listing Fees Scrutinized
Bitcoin and Solana Surge
Global Dollar Network Gains Traction
Blockchain and Energy Innovations
Deutsche Telekom Plans to Mine Bitcoin
NFT and Blockchain Metrics
BNB Chain's NFT Surge
OpenSea 2.0 Relaunch
Altcoins:
21Shares filed to launch an XRP ETF with the SEC.
Semler, UK, and Michigan funds led major crypto investments.
BNB Chain launched a tokenization service for RWAs and businesses.
Magic Labs and Polygon introduced a cross-chain network to break blockchain silos.
Kraken launched a crypto derivatives suite for Australian wholesale clients.
Zodia Custody, backed by Standard Chartered, sought $50 million in funding.
Circle advanced Hong Kong expansion while moving forward with IPO plans.
Curve proposed allocating 10% of crvUSD revenue to savings crvUSD holders.
Hamster Kombat lost 86% of users as Paws Mini App gained traction on Telegram.
BNB Chain launched a tokenization service for RWAs and businesses.
Crypto.com teased banking, credit card, and stock services, added to Poland's alert list after Dutch fine.
Arkham Intelligence planned a crypto perpetuals exchange with audits and rewards.
Avalanche Foundation repurchased 1.97M AVAX tokens from Luna Foundation Guard.
A French Polymarket whale was estimated to profit $79M on US election bets amid France's potential ban on the platform.
Magic Labs and Polygon introduced a cross-chain network to break blockchain silos.
Transak facilitated NFT checkout for Lamborghini.
Detroit approved crypto payments for taxes and fees.
Proposal to rebrand Sky to Maker was rejected by whale votes.
Coinbase expanded cbBTC to Solana.
Wintermute proposed a fee switch for fair revenue sharing in Ethena protocol.
3️⃣ Market overview
Overall Markets
BlackRock-Millennium Talks: BlackRock is exploring a stake in hedge fund Millennium to expand its alternative assets portfolio.
Stock Rally: Markets surged post-election and rate cut, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting records; Tesla and other tech stocks saw notable gains.
Wintermute’s Ethena Proposal: Wintermute proposes a fee switch for Ethena to enhance revenue transparency and reward staked ENA holders.
Ethereum’s Mekong Testnet: Ethereum Foundation launched Mekong testnet to preview upgrades for the upcoming "Pectra" fork.
Crypto Markets
Trump Re-elected, Boosts Crypto Outlook
Donald Trump's victory in the presidential race is seen as a crypto-positive outcome, as he has championed digital assets and proposed a national bitcoin reserve.
Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $76,500, boosted further by a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Solana Surpasses Ethereum in Active Addresses
Solana hit a new record with 123 million active addresses in October, largely driven by a memecoin trading boom and low transaction fees.
Engagement on Solana now reportedly outpaces Ethereum, with Solana’s low-cost transactions attracting high user activity.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Volatile Flows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $541 million outflow on Monday, marking their largest daily decline since May, but rebounded by $621 million on Wednesday, keeping overall net inflows above $24 billion.
Binance and CZ Move to Dismiss SEC Complaint
Binance and ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao’s legal team filed to dismiss the SEC’s amended complaint, arguing the SEC lacks clarity on crypto securities definitions.
This motion is part of ongoing litigation separate from Binance's $4.3 billion DOJ settlement in November 2023.
Mt. Gox Transfers $2.19 Billion in BTC Amid Repayment Delays
Mt. Gox moved 32,371 BTC to unidentified wallets following an announcement to extend its creditor repayment deadline by a year, fueling speculation about market impacts.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🟢 US Economy
Growth Amid Stability Concerns: The US economy expanded at a healthy 2.8% rate in Q3, driven primarily by robust consumer spending and export activity. While the economy shows resilience, the slight deceleration in GDP growth and declining residential investment suggest potential limits to sustained momentum, especially with consumer debt burdens rising.
Inflation Moderation: The PCE-deflator—a key inflation measure—increased modestly, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) holding steady at 2.2%. This aligns with the Fed's soft-landing goal, showing inflation largely under control, which may justify gradual easing of monetary policy to maintain economic support without overheating.
Labor Market Constraints: October job growth was hampered by external shocks (hurricanes and Boeing strike), which obscured underlying employment trends. While job openings dropped to 4.5%, wage growth still rose, reflecting both sustained labor demand and lingering tightness in certain sectors, such as health care. This nuanced dynamic signals stability but highlights the economy’s vulnerability to sectoral disruptions.
🟡 Eurozone Inflation Eases but Service Prices Persist
Inflation Dynamics: Inflation in the Eurozone rose slightly to 2% in October, meeting the ECB’s target, largely due to reduced energy prices. Core inflation, at 2.7%, remains stable but elevated, with persistent service price inflation (3.9%) driven by rising wages in a tight labor market.
ECB’s Balancing Act: With core inflation steady and GDP growth in Q3, the ECB’s gradual policy easing reflects its attempt to support economic growth without reigniting inflation, especially as productivity lags in the service sector.
🔴 Consumer Spending and Savings Trends
Household Caution: Despite growing disposable income, the Eurozone’s high savings rate—rising to 15.6% in Q2—suggests cautious consumer behavior. As interest rates decline, improved confidence may spur spending, boosting economic growth.
🔴 Germany’s Opposition to EU Tariffs on Chinese EVs
Trade Concerns: Germany opposes EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, fearing repercussions in the Chinese market. With German automakers already facing weak demand in both domestic and Chinese markets, a potential trade conflict could further strain the auto industry’s earnings, impacting Germany’s economic stability.
5️⃣ Mexico-China Spotlight🔴
Shift in Manufacturing: With US-China trade restrictions tightening, Chinese companies are increasingly investing in Mexico ($3.77 billion in 2023, double the previous year) to gain easier access to the US market through the USMCA framework. This trend highlights Mexico’s growing importance in global supply chains as a cost-effective, strategically positioned production hub for Chinese firms.
US-Mexico-China Supply Chain Dynamics: Mexican exports to the US with Chinese content rose to 21.2% by 2020, reflecting China’s indirect access to the US market. However, USMCA content requirements prevent simple reexporting of Chinese goods via Mexico, adding complexity for Chinese companies in navigating tariff policies.
Impending USMCA Negotiations: The 2026 USMCA renegotiations will likely focus on restricting Chinese content in Mexican exports to the US. Any tightening of these rules could force substantial shifts in established supply chains, affecting both Chinese and Mexican stakeholders who rely on seamless access to the US market.