We’ve lost the ALT season to ERC404
$BTC at ATH for the month: 47K
Here are 3 factors that tell us about the bull market ahead 👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 10.02.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ EU Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Previous Week
Next Week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Market Dynamics and Predictions
Bitcoin Surges to New Heights
Ethereum Eyes Lower Fees with Upgrade
Do Kwon's Court Win in Montenegro
Ex-CEO's Crypto Gamble Causes Bank Failure
Legal and Regulatory Updates
Legal Heat for Coinbase on Token Control
Senators Question SEC's Enforcement Tactics
Tradestation Pays $3M in SEC Settlement
Kraken's Regulatory Win in Europe
Block Earner Faces, Wins Regulation Challenge
Technological Innovations
Polygon Reduces Costs with zkEVM Prover
Cairo Verifier: Next-Gen Blockchain Scalability
Exchange and Platform News
Bitcoin Leads in Latin American Portfolios
XRP Rewards for XRPL Sidechain Validators
Pendle Nears $1 Billion TVL
New Ethereum Standard Blends NFT and Token Ownership
3️⃣ Market overview
The latest U.S. jobs report signals continued labor market strength and economic resilience, leading markets to scale back expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts. However, Trump's hints at more aggressive future trade actions against China, inject uncertainty into the 2024 outlook.
January's strong 353,000 U.S. jobs growth has reduced the likelihood of a March Fed rate cut, sparking a rise in short-term yields. Markets now expect a more gradual pace of rate reductions based on Fed Chair Powell’s latest guidance.
Trump suggested post-election Chinese tariffs could exceed 60%, marking a harsher stance than his first term. This evokes 2018 trade war concerns and introduces policy uncertainty ahead of 2024.
Key data and events ahead include U.S. services PMI. Markets seem positioned for resilience but face risks from hawkish trade policy prospects, China slowdown, and further inflation/earnings headwinds.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🟢 The January US jobs report revealed a red-hot labor market, with much stronger than expected job growth along with accelerating wage gains, reducing expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts.
Wage growth accelerated to 4.5% annually in January, the fastest since September 2023, reflecting a tight labor market. This eases pressure for Fed rate cuts.
Other indicators like job openings and quits rates signal an still historically tight job market. Openings remain near record highs while quits show the "Great Resignation" is over.
Faster wage gains stirred a spike in Treasury yields and dollar strength as markets now expect the Fed to keep rates higher for longer to cool labor market strength.
Risks remain from excessive tightening leading to recession, but for now data shows no meaningful economic or jobs slowdown despite Fed hikes. Policymakers face a tricky balance ahead.
🟡 Despite some encouraging inflation data, the Fed plans to maintain its tight policy stance until greater confidence is achieved that inflation will stay down, concerned labor strength will sustain wage and price pressures.
Fed Chair Powell said more progress is needed on inflation before rate cuts, noting still-high core inflation and a strong job market fueling sharp wage gains. This suggests rates staying elevated for some time.
A positive sign is three straight quarters of robust US productivity growth, which could enable wage hikes without higher inflation. But it's uncertain if this persists.
5️⃣ EU Spotlight🔴
In the Eurozone, January inflation fell by more than expected, driven by plunging goods prices. But sticky services inflation tied to wage growth stops the ECB cutting rates soon.
While the Red Sea crisis has driven up Europe's shipping costs, the hit to inflation may be modest with companies reporting only modest demand rises for now.
Weak 2023 Eurozone growth, especially in Germany, raises recession worries. But real wage gains, excess savings, and expected ECB rate cuts provide some optimism.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo/status/1756276585207108010
I like that Macro Pulse became more concise. Read it every week! Thanks for your job mate!