Macro Pulse Update 10.08.2024
The conclusion is the macro top is likely much higher than here.
We are in the HODL-ing wave with massive accumulation the past week
The macro story leading up to a possible rate cute in Sep 👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 10.08.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last week
Next week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Crypto Market Updates
Bitcoin price surges past $62,000 amid market caution
Ethereum faces critical support levels as whale activity rises
Bitcoin ETFs see record inflows; Ether ETFs face outflows
Cboe re-files spot Bitcoin ETF application amid SEC engagement
Stablecoins and Market Trends
Tether mints $1.3 billion USDT as Bitcoin rebounds
Regulatory and Legal Developments
Crypto leaders confront White House over banking challenges
OKX enforces sanctions compliance with account deactivations
Thailand SEC launches Digital Asset Regulatory Sandbox
Debates and Market Analysis
Bitcoin power law debate sparks intense controversy
Security and Technology
Solana developers address critical security threat proactively
Celestia's Lemongrass upgrade brings key improvements
Crypto Exchanges and Platforms
Coinbase to list Zetachain and Across Protocol
Partnerships and Collaborations
Illuvium partners with Samsung for Web3 gaming integration
Lamborghini partners with Animoca for digital engagement
Market Movements and Transactions
Worldcoin price rises despite Alameda token transfer
Innovative Platforms and Blockchain Development
Pump.fun incentivizes memecoin creators with Solana rewards
SuiNS transitions to decentralized governance with NS token
Nostra expands to Monad blockchain for DeFi enhancement
Country-Specific Crypto Developments
Montenegro court delays Do Kwon's extradition to South Korea
Turkey's new crypto regulations spur surge in license applications
Legal Battles and Challenges
Avraham Eisenberg seeks acquittal in Mango Markets case
Cryptocurrency Scandals and Issues
Trump-themed cryptocurrency crashes 95% after Eric Trump denial
Kanpai Pandas NFTs drop amid Trump token controversy
3️⃣ Market overview
Key Insights
Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Week: Bitcoin dipped below $50,000 earlier this week, hitting its lowest point since mid-February. However, it quickly rebounded, nearing $60,000 by Thursday as market sentiment improved despite ongoing recession fears.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Significant Outflows: Amidst global market volatility, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $168.4 million in net outflows on Monday. Grayscale’s GBTC led these withdrawals, with broader macroeconomic issues and crypto-specific challenges driving the selloff.
Crypto Industry Calls for Regulatory Clarity: Over 50 crypto firms, united under the Crypto Market Integrity Coalition, have urged the Biden administration to establish clearer regulations for digital assets, highlighting the need for a more secure and innovation-friendly environment.
Ethereum Activity Declines as Solana Gains Traction: The launch of spot ether ETFs coincided with a sharp drop in new Ethereum wallet addresses, hitting their lowest level this year. In contrast, Solana saw growth in new addresses, driven by its expanding DEX ecosystem and increased interest in memecoins
Ripple Expands Its Stablecoin Ambitions: Ripple is moving forward with its stablecoin strategy by preparing to launch Ripple USD (RLUSD) on the XRP Ledger and Ethereum. This move is expected to bolster Ripple’s efforts in enhancing cross-border transaction innovation.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🟡 Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve delayed cutting interest rates, following a weak jobs report and significant market volatility, including a sharp drop in the 10-year bond yield and declines in equities.
Market Reactions: The S&P 500 fell 2.3%, tech stocks saw sharp declines, the dollar weakened against major currencies, and Brent crude prices dropped 3.4%, reflecting concerns over the economic outlook.
Jobs Report: The July employment report showed a modest gain of 114,000 jobs, with unemployment rising to 4.3%. Wage growth slowed to 3.6%, signaling potential economic weakness.
Recession Concerns: The word “recession” gained traction as indicators like rising credit card delinquencies, weak manufacturing orders, and a slowing job market raised concerns, despite strong consumer spending and business investment.
Fed’s Dual Mandate: The Fed is shifting focus from solely inflation to also considering employment, with expectations of a rate cut in September as the Fed acknowledges rising unemployment and financial stress among households.
US productivity Growth: Strong productivity growth in the US during the second quarter has alleviated some inflationary pressures, suggesting that rising wages may not translate into higher prices, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy sooner.
Tight US Labor Market Shows Signs of Easing: Despite rising productivity, initial unemployment claims have increased, indicating potential easing in the tight labor market, which could reduce wage pressures and further support lower inflation.
🟢 The Eurozone economy is recovering modestly, with Spain showing robust growth due to strong consumer spending and exports, while Germany lags due to weak investment and high energy costs.
ECB Faces Dilemma on Rate Cuts Amid Mixed Inflation Data: Eurozone inflation remains stuck at elevated levels, particularly in services, complicating the European Central Bank’s decision on whether to continue cutting interest rates, as it balances between controlling inflation and supporting economic recovery.
Eurozone Inflation Varied by Country: Inflation trends in the Eurozone are mixed, with some countries like Italy and Spain showing signs of easing, while others, such as Belgium, still face higher inflation, adding complexity to the ECB’s policy decisions.
5️⃣ China Spotlight🟢
The renminbi’s internationalization has seen significant growth, with a 22.9% increase in its global usage index in 2023, but it remains far behind the US dollar and euro, indicating limited global influence.
Government Efforts to Boost Renminbi Usage: China is actively promoting the renminbi through cross-border financial settlement platforms and currency-swap arrangements, aiming to enhance its role in global trade and finance.
Capital Controls Hinder Renminbi’s Potential: China’s continued use of capital controls, which allows the government to manage currency value and maintain low interest rates, is a major barrier to the renminbi challenging the dominance of the US dollar in the near future.