We’re in a fatalistically bullish case (termed by @rektdiomedes)
Economy’s rotten but all thing go pumping
Here are 3 indicators telling us about the economy👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 18.11.2023, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last week
Next week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Regulatory and ETF Developments
SEC's ETF Decision Postponement
XRP Rollercoaster and Misinformation
Blockchain Initiatives and Partnerships
JPMorgan's Blockchain Initiative with Avalanche
Security Challenges and Incidents
Binance-Linked Wallet Heist and Security Challenges
Crypto Wallet Vulnerability and Phishing Scam
Legal Updates
Tether's Legal Developments and Minting Activity
BlackRock's Spot Ether ETF and Revelations
Exchange News
FTX-related Developments and Lawsuits
Binance's Expansion in Thailand and Japan
Funding and Resilience
Blockchain.com's Funding Round and Resilience
Crypto Market Updates
Polygon's Gas Fee Surge and Ecosystem Expansion
Solana's Market Surge and DeFi Developments
NFT Platform and Gaming Trends
Disney Pinnacle: Disney's NFT Platform
Crypto-Enabled Games' Popularity and Bot Concerns
OpenSea's Phishing Campaign and Security Incidents
Altcoins
THORChain became 3rd largest DEX by weekly volume, surpassing Curve Finance.
Cardano's Q3 2023 highlights: 461% increase in stablecoin value, completed Project Catalyst Fund10, progressed in Voltaire governance phase, and launched Mithril.
The Bitcoin Ordinals token ecosystem emerged as a recent crypto trend, driven by ORDI excitement.
Bithumb aimed for Korea stock market listing with an IPO planned for late 2025.
Opyn co-founders resigned following CFTC action.
Crypto.com secured VASP license from Dubai's virtual asset regulator.
Reddit admins planned a 30% MOON supply cut, sparking a 240% token surge.
GROK's value dropped 50% amid connections to failed projects.
dYdX Chain launched beta mainnet and partnered with Circle for USDC access, anticipating a $500M token unlock.
Animoca joined Chiliz Chain as a validator, targeting the SportFi ecosystem.
Uniswap released an Android wallet app featuring a swap function.
Circle Ventures invested in Sei to grow the USDC ecosystem.
Vitalik Buterin's endorsement led to a 10% rally in OMG Network.
LayerZero Labs introduced Colortrace, an onchain attribution solution.
Microsoft and Tencent joined the Decentralized Infura Network.
Poloniex resumed services post-$100M hack, with users awaiting reimbursement details.
Aave Companies became Avara and acquired Ethereum's 'Family Wallet.'
Singapore's Monetary Authority collaborated with global banks on a tokenization initiative.
PancakeSwap debuted a gaming marketplace.
Celestia's TIA Token climbed 200% in two weeks despite low on-chain activity.
Boyaa Interactive sought approval for a $100M crypto investment to boost its Web3 strategy.
Binance Labs invested in Arkham's ARKM token.
South Korea's pension fund acquired 280K Coinbase shares.
Montenegro High Court rejected Do Kwon's appeal in a fake passport case.
Coinshares acquired rights to Valkyrie's ETF division, eyeing U.S. expansion.
3️⃣ Market overview
Signs of easing inflationary pressures in the U.S., which could reshape market expectations around the Fed's interest rate trajectory. However, Chinese authorities are moving in the opposite direction, aggressively loosening monetary policy to energize the economy.
U.S. producer price inflation moderated more than expected in October, with the PPI declining 0.5% month-on-month. This could signal a potential pivot in the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening stance.
The People's Bank of China has significantly ramped up economic stimulus measures, injecting 1.45 trillion yuan into the financial system. This comes amid liquidity concerns and aims to boost infrastructure spending.
Major U.S. stock indexes posted modest gains in the latest session, though were weighed down by disappointing guidance from Cisco Systems and Palo Alto Networks.
Corporate earnings results are driving significant stock reactions, underscoring the importance of company fundamentals and guidance in determining market
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🔴 A notable demographic shift will require adjustments from policymakers and society, but not necessarily a catastrophic challenge if met proactively with technological, healthcare and immigration policy solutions. The outlook depends on how well we adapt to the changing population landscape.
The U.S. Census Bureau has substantially lowered its population projections for 2040 and beyond. It now expects much slower growth due to declining birth rates and rising death rates.
This could have significant economic implications, including slower economic growth, labor shortages, and increased strain on pensions and healthcare as the ratio of workers to retirees declines.
However, technology advances like AI could help boost productivity to offset the labor shortage. Immigration policy will also be critical in determining population and workforce growth.
The U.S. is not alone, as many developed countries are experiencing declining birth rates. This global demographic shift brings new challenges but also opportunities.
Key uncertainties remain around birth and death rate projections and immigration policies. The Census Bureau's projections are not definitive and could change based on these factors.
🟢 Like the Fed, the ECB is signaling rates will stay high even as markets expect cuts. The disconnect shows the challenge in calibrating policy amid uncertain inflation and growth outlooks.
The ECB intends to keep interest rates high for an extended period to bring down inflation. President Lagarde said rates will stay elevated for "long enough" to hit the 2% target.
However, markets are skeptical and pricing in rate cuts by 2024. This likely reflects expectations of lower inflation and a weak Eurozone economy heading into recession.
Eurozone inflation has fallen substantially from its peak but Lagarde believes it could resume rising without high rates for long enough.
Government bond yields have fallen sharply in Europe recently, offsetting the ECB's tight policy. This may be driven by recession fears and expectations of ECB rate cuts.
Lower yields could boost economic activity, leading the ECB to prolong high rates. Central bankers are worried investors are underestimating persistence of inflation.
5️⃣ China Spotlight🔴
China experienced deflation in October, reflecting weak demand and excess capacity. Core inflation remains low. The PBOC has eased monetary policy cautiously to avoid capital outflows and currency depreciation.
China has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries substantially since 2014 to minimize risks. However, China's sales likely had little impact on US bond yields.
Inbound foreign direct investment into China has declined sharply as companies look to diversify supply chains. This could dampen China's growth prospects.
The IMF upgraded its China growth forecasts slightly for 2023 and 2024 due to expected government support. But it sees growth decelerating over the long run due to demographics and slowing productivity.
China's exports fell again in October on weak global demand and trade tensions. But imports rose, especially from Europe and Southeast Asia.
The trade war continues, with China restricting rare earth exports after recent US technology restrictions. Tensions remain high ahead of an upcoming Xi-Biden meeting.
Twiter: https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo/status/1725829715527942546