Macro Pulse Update 22.09.2024
The only altcoin signal is telling us that its a buy
In 2023, the last time this happened, it pump by more than 372%
Dig into the 3 macro indicators that tells us this 👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 22.09.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Previous week
Next week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Stablecoin and Market Updates
Revolut's USD Stablecoin Joins Growing Stablecoin Market
GameFi and Tap-to-Earn Developments
GameFi and Tap-to-Earn Developments Dominate Telegram Leaks
Security and Hacking Incidents
Genesis Creditor Loses $243M in Advanced Crypto Heist
BingX Cyberattack Results in $45M Hot Wallet Loss
Solana and Blockchain Ecosystem Updates
Solana Boosted by Smartphone, Finance, and Gaming Developments
Growing Institutional Interest in Tokenized Real-World Assets
Regulatory and Legal Updates
Terraform Labs to Wind Down After $4.47B Lawsuit Settlement
Trump-Backed WLFI Governance Token Set for U.S. Investors
Crypto Exchange and Platform Developments
Hilbert Group, Xapo Bank Launch Bitcoin-Denominated Credit Fund
Exploits and Controversies
Banana Gun Bot Exploited, $1.9M Stolen from Users
NFT and Gaming Industry Updates
Yuga Labs Launches Dookey Dash with $1M in Prizes
DeGods NFT Collection Shifts to Hybrid Memecoin Format
Doodles Honors Rubik’s Cube’s 50th Anniversary with NFT Collaboration
Chiru Labs Acquires Anime.com to Expand NFT and Anime Presence
Altcoins:
Mashinsky sought testimony from six witnesses while facing a 115-year sentence.
Coinbase CEO denied claims of selling ‘paper Bitcoin’ to BlackRock.
Deutsche Digital Assets launched the first-ever Bitcoin macro ETP.
EigenLayer introduced Bitcoin restaking incentives.
Dark Angels hacked $75 million in Bitcoin, the largest ransomware attack to date.
Google Cloud rolled out a Blockchain RPC service for Ethereum and other networks.
Binance founder CZ set for release on September 29, as confirmed by the US Federal Bureau of Prisons.
BitGo introduced a token management service for crypto foundations.
Flare Network upgrade to Flare Time Series Oracle v2 to improve performance.
Delta Prime lost $6 million after an admin mishandled a private key.
Flyfish Club's NFT sale violated securities laws, leading to a $750K fine by the SEC.
Singapore’s largest bank introduced crypto trading for institutional investors.
IoTeX partnered with Polygon Labs to enable cross-chain DePIN liquidity.
Binance denied responsibility in the $230M WazirX hack, urged user repayments.
Wintermute announced a predictions market with TRUMP and HARRIS tokens.
dYdX prepared to add perpetual futures to prediction markets.
Trust Wallet debunked TWT delisting rumors as FUD.
WalletConnect to airdrop 185 million WCT with its native token launch.
A new AI infrastructure fund backed by BlackRock and Microsoft was introduced.
BNB Chain partnered with major CEX, wallets, and bridges for gas-free transfers.
Io.net partnered to reduce AI model training costs by 30%.
Phantom improved user experience with optional usernames and secure transfers.
Switzerland’s SIX announced plans to launch a cryptocurrency trading platform in Europe.
Sky completed its rebrand by launching new dApp and tokens.
Finnish police searches for Hex founder Richard Heart for tax evasion and assault.
Moody’s identified DePIN as a promising infrastructure approach.
Global banking giants joined Project Agora to improve cross-border payments.
Silvergate Capital filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware.
HNT dropped after backlash against the Helium v3 proposal.
Rari Capital settled with the SEC over unregistered offerings.
DZ Bank offered crypto trading to clients through a partnership with Boerse Stuttgart offered.
WazirX struggled to recover funds 60 days post-hack.
UNKJD Soccer collaborated with Puma for exclusive in-game content.
Aave’s community opposed offboarding WBTC amid restructuring plans.
Crypto.com received full approval from Bahrain’s authorities.
Decentraland’s X account was hacked to promote a fake MANA airdrop.
ConsenSys vowed to continue fighting after the judge dismissed the SEC lawsuit.
Coinbase’s cbBTC became the third-largest wrapped BTC token in one week.
The SEC requested a 4-month extension for fact discovery in the Coinbase case.
Judges questioned the CFTC and Kalshi over the legality of US election markets.
Nosana announced plans to launch its mainnet in January 2025.
Jupiter acquired Coinhall and SolanaFM to expand DEX services.
BlackRock modified its Coinbase custody deal to require 12-hour withdrawals.
Aethir and Filecoin teamed up to expand GPU resources and improve security.
Arthur Hayes recorded a 36% loss after selling PENDLE tokens.
Prominent Listings:
Fund & Fundraising:
Dragonfly: $500M - 4th fund (plan)
Borderless Capital: $100M DePIN fund
CertiK Ventures: $45M Web3 investment plan
TON: $30M
Drift: $25M
Chromia: $20M data and AI fund
Hemi Labs: $15M
Permissionless Labs: $10M
Yellow Network: $10M
CUDIS: $5M
Sorted Wallet: $1.5M
One Trading: undisclosed
3️⃣ Market overview
The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%, its first cut in over four years. Bitcoin surged past $63,000, buoyed by the rate cut as a positive sign for risk assets.
US Crypto Legislation Possible in 2024: Senator Cynthia Lummis expressed optimism that Congress could pass crypto legislation during the lame-duck session, as US lawmakers work toward a bipartisan framework.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Inflows: US spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $187 million in inflows on Tuesday, marking four consecutive days of gains following a recent downturn.
Republicans Seek Clarity on Crypto Airdrops: Republican lawmakers asked the SEC for clear guidance on crypto airdrops, questioning the agency's stance on whether they constitute a distribution of securities.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🟢 Inflation slowed to 2.5% in August, the lowest since February 2021, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held steady at 3.2%, but recent trends suggest underlying inflation has reached the Fed’s 2% target.
Energy Prices Drop: Energy prices, including gasoline, fell sharply, contributing to lower headline inflation. However, services, particularly shelter, remain the main source of inflationary pressure due to rising labor costs.
Investor Sentiment Shifts on Fed Rate Cuts: While investors had anticipated a 50 basis point rate cut, the inflation report and recent Fed statements have created mixed expectations, with probabilities of a 50 basis point cut fluctuating between 13% and 47%.
Job Market Concerns: Job growth has slowed, with an increase in part-time over full-time positions. Consumer spending outpaces income, driven by reduced savings and increased debt, raising concerns about economic sustainability.
Balanced Fed Approach Likely: The Fed’s approach will likely weigh easing inflation against persistent services inflation and strong economic indicators, leading to cautious monetary easing to avoid signaling economic distress.
🟢 The ECB projects inflation will drop to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, aligning with its 2% target. Core inflation is expected to decline to 2.9% this year and 2.3% in 2025, driven by receding labor cost pressures.
Balancing Inflation and Economic Weakness: ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted persistent wage growth but noted moderating labor cost pressures. Despite restrictive financing conditions and subdued economic activity, the ECB expects gradual economic recovery as monetary policy effects fade.
Future Rate Decisions Data-Dependent: The ECB remains flexible, indicating that future rate decisions will depend on evolving economic data rather than a predetermined path, aiming to keep rates restrictive as needed.
Market Reaction and Euro Impact: Investor response was muted as the rate cut was widely anticipated. Slower rate cuts compared to the US Federal Reserve could strengthen the euro against the US dollar.
5️⃣ China Spotlight🔴
China’s consumer price inflation rose to 0.6%, the highest since February but still near deflation. Food prices increased by 2.8% due to extreme weather, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was only 0.3%. Producer prices fell 1.8% year-over-year, marking the sharpest drop since April.
Deflation Risks Loom: Low inflation signals weak economic activity, excess supply, and high real interest rates, which can stifle credit markets, delay consumer spending, and hurt business margins, increasing the risk of deflation.
Calls for Policy Action Amid Constraints: While China has slightly eased monetary policy and introduced modest fiscal stimulus, calls for more aggressive measures face challenges. Looser monetary policy could weaken the renminbi, straining foreign debt servicing, and additional fiscal stimulus could exacerbate concerns about government debt levels.
Structural Issues Need Addressing: Beyond boosting demand, China must tackle excess supply issues by reducing subsidies and allowing non-viable companies to close, addressing underlying economic imbalances.