Market got bloody for the week, fuelled by ETF sell offs
Sell into Greens, Buy the Blood
Here are 3 indicators about the market condition 👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 23.03.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last Week
Next Week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Crypto Market Trends and Major Sales
Solana Surpasses Ethereum with DEX and DeFi TVL Boom
Bitcoin's Flash Crash on BitMEX Spurs Investigation
Ethereum Faces SEC Probe Over Proof-of-Stake Transition
Do Kwon's Legal Battles and Crypto Industry's FTX Fallout
Platform and Exchange News
Reddit's MOON Soars Ahead of IPO Amid FTC Probe
OKX Shifts Gears in Europe and India, Forges New Alliances
Regulatory and Legal Updates
EtherFi Airdrop Criticism Amid Market Turbulence
Innovations and Developments
Ethereum's Layer 2 Innovations Drive Market Growth
OpenSea Enhances NFT Marketplace with Seaport 1.6 Launch
Second Record CryptoPunk Sale
Dogwifhat Meme-Inspired Auction Success
CARV Champions Data Sovereignty with New NFT Standard
Altcoins
Base surged to 2M daily transactions following the Dencun upgrade.
Figure raised $60M to build a 'differentiated' crypto exchange.
The Shiba Inu Team shared a big update on the SHIB Metaverse.
Coti launched a $10M rewards program to support its v2 token rollout.
FTM rocketed as Fantom's Sonic upgrade approached.
Chiliz (CHZ) signed a strategic partnership with Unagi and LFP for a fantasy football game.
Bitget Wallet launched its native token one year after raising $30M.
Nomura's subsidiary, Laser Digital, tested USDC transfers with Keyring Network.
Changpeng Zhao announced the launch of Giggle Academy amid legal issues.
Genesis agreed to pay the SEC a $21M penalty over the Gemini Earn product.
Streamr Network 1.0 Mainnet launched, fulfilling its 2017 roadmap.
Immutable and Polygon launched a $100 million fund for blockchain games.
ParaSwap evaded a hack targeting its Augustus v6 contract.
Aave announced a merit airdrop to reward loyalty and outpace rivals.
The Tornado Cash founder was charged for aiding $1.2 billion in laundered funds.
Stacks (STX) surged to an ATH following upgrade approval and BTC yield incentives.
Celsius pursued a $2B pre-bankruptcy exodus.
North Korea reportedly pocketed $3 billion from crypto hacks, according to the United Nations.
The Open Network unveiled a $124M incentives program amid growth.
AirDAO lost 35.2M AMB and 125 ETH to a Uniswap pool exploit.
Layerswap recovered its domain and restored user funds after a $100,000 loss.
Floki and TokenFi became official crypto partners for a table tennis event in South Korea.
The Avalanche Foundation announced a $1M mining incentive Memecoin Rush program to enhance ecosystem liquidity.
The ONDO Token hit a new ATH following a 40% surge.
Succinct, a ZK proofs startup, secured a $55 million round led by Paradigm.
MakerDAO experienced significant growth as upcoming rate system changes boosted prices and user activity.
A PINK Memecoin was launched by Polkadot on parachains.
Anonymous crypto wallets became illegal in the EU.
A White-Hat Hacker exploited the Super Sushi Samurai crypto game for $4.6M.
A security vulnerability in Apple’s M-Series Chips put Mac users’ crypto private keys at risk.
Worldcoin made its Orb software open-source and implemented ‘personal custody’.
AIOZ Network partnered with Alibaba Cloud to boost AI, storage, and streaming services.
Trezor clarified that phishing, not SIM swap, compromised an X account.
ENS data from Etherscan became visible in Google search results.
3️⃣ Market overview
Crypto Market
Volatility and diverse factors influencing the cryptocurrency market, including investor sentiment, regulatory developments, network activity, and emerging trends like AI and meme coins.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped below $61,000 for the first time since early March, potentially due to investor confidence dwindling and significant outflows from Bitcoin investment vehicles like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its May meeting but is still anticipating three rate cuts by the end of the year. This news was well-received by traditional markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs, and Bitcoin reclaiming the $67,000 level.
Hopes for the approval of an Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appear to be diminishing, leading to a significant drop in the price of ETH from around $3,600 to as low as $3,060.
Solana (SOL) has defied the overall market downtrend, breaking above $200 for the first time in two years, potentially driven by a surge in activity on the Solana network fueled by the popularity of newly launched Solana-based meme coins.
The continued fascination with artificial intelligence (AI) has led to a short-lived rally in AI-related cryptocurrencies, such as Render (RNDR), Akash (AKT), Fetch.AI (FET), and Bittensor (TAO), despite the overall downward market trend this week.
Macro Market
Fed's dovish stance boosted markets, while corporate moves like Alibaba's divestment and upcoming economic data releases add context to market dynamics.
Federal Reserve:
Kept rates unchanged but affirmed plans for 3 rate cuts in 2023
Decision triggered rally in U.S. stocks, with major indices hitting new highs
Indicates dovish stance to achieve "soft landing" amid inflation concerns
U.S. Stock Rally:
All 3 major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow) hit new highs after Fed decision
Tech sector led gains, with Nasdaq up 1.15%
Boeing surged 3.67% on potential defense business sales
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🟡 While US inflation ticked up recently, driven by services and shelter costs, core measures showed some moderation. The Fed's future policy path hinges on whether inflation accelerates further or eases, particularly depending on labor market dynamics and productivity trends.
Despite alarming headlines, investors seemed unfazed, with bond yields rising only slightly and equity prices continuing to rise, reflecting confidence in economic strength and enthusiasm for technology.
The Federal Reserve will closely monitor labor market conditions and wage gains as drivers of services inflation.
Increased immigration boosting labor supply and higher productivity could help ease inflation pressures.
The Fed's policy stance will depend on inflation trends, potentially keeping monetary policy tight longer to weaken the job market and suppress wage inflation if inflation persists.
🔴 Eurozone's productivity slump poses challenges for sustainable economic expansion and price stability, underscoring the need for structural reforms and investments to boost innovation and efficiency.
The sustained drop in Eurozone productivity is concerning as it impedes strong economic growth and complicates the ECB's efforts to rein in inflation.
Higher productivity is crucial for offsetting wage increases without stoking inflation further.
The divergence with rising U.S. productivity highlights structural factors like research and development, market efficiency, and technological adoption that may be hampering Europe's productivity performance.
If productivity remains depressed, the ECB may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer to weaken the labor market and suppress wage growth.
Conversely, a rebound in productivity could allow for more accommodative policy. Policymakers will closely monitor productivity trends as they shape the outlook for growth, inflation, and the appropriate policy stance.
5️⃣ China Spotlight🔴
China's rebound in consumer inflation is clouded by persistent producer price deflation and economic headwinds. While aiming for robust growth, curbing debt-fueled investment without boosting consumption risks stagnation.
Policy challenges include defusing debt risks, reviving growth drivers, managing capital flows, and transitioning to higher-value industries amid tensions. Balanced policies to unlock consumer demand and new growth engines are crucial to sustain positive inflation and avoid prolonged deflation risks.
Chinese consumer inflation rebounded to 0.7% year-over-year in February, the highest since March 2023, driven by Lunar New Year demand and a spike in pork prices. However, it remains unclear if this marks a sustained return to positive inflation.
Producer prices continued declining, down 2.7% annually and accelerating from the previous month, raising concerns about persistent deflationary pressures from weak demand and excess capacity.
The government targets 5% GDP growth and 3% inflation for 2024, much higher than private forecasts, assuming strong economic performance.
China faces headwinds including troubled property market, stagnant investment, high savings rate, weak foreign investment, and external factors, with no significant policy shifts planned.
Low bond yields reflect expectations of low inflation/growth and risk of capital outflows if yield gap with US widens further.
The government is curbing property and infrastructure investment to reduce debt, but consumer spending is not accelerating enough to offset the investment decline.
Attempts to defuse local government debt while ensuring growth may be challenging without boosting consumer demand.
Shifting investment to high-tech and clean energy faces Western restrictions and excess capacity issues.
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