Macro Pulse Update 23.11.2024
TOTAL2 smashing through a key resistance.
This is exactly how the legendary 2020/2021 Altcoin Season began.
We’re already at $98K, MicroStrategy doubling down with $30B in holdings, and memecoins reaching new highs.
What you need to know to make so much money in the next few months 👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 23.11.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ Europe Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last week
Next Week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Major Regulatory and Market Updates
Gensler Resigns Amid Crypto Optimism
Solana ETFs Reflect Institutional Interest
Meme Coins Face Volatile Week
China Recognizes Crypto Ownership
Corporate and Institutional Investments
MicroStrategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings
Schwab and Goldman Embrace Crypto
Crypto Exchange and Token Developments
FTX Plans $16.5B Reimbursement
Legal and Governance Updates
Lido DAO Faces Legal Risks
NFT and Web3 Innovations
McDonald’s Partners With Doodles
Shaquille O’Neal Settles NFT Lawsuit
Altcoins
Ethena activated Wintermute’s fee switch proposal.
Quantoz to launch MiCA-compliant stablecoins with Tether funding amid regulatory changes.
HBAR price rose as Hedera board member Brian Brooks was speculated to head the US SEC.
Simon’s Cat Token aimed for Solana expansion to drive major growth.
Meme coins boosted Solana DApps to the top 10 fee-generating protocols.
Coinbase announced plans to delist WBTC on December 19.
Sky introduced USDS on Solana.
Decentralized AI project Morpheus launched on its mainnet.
Binance clarified concerns about BFUSD amid Terra collapse comparisons.
ME Foundation announced a ~$312 million token airdrop for Magic Eden users.
BlackRock’s BUIDL token launched on Securitize's platform for synthetic dollar minting with RWA yield.
io.net partnered with Zero1 Labs to advance decentralized AI development.
Russia approved a 15% tax on crypto mining and transactions.
Injective launched an SDK for building on-chain AI agents.
South Korea confirmed a 20% crypto tax starting in 2025 with a higher exemption limit.
Uniswap V3 liquidity pools remained dominated by a few large participants, according to a BIS study.
Meme coin launchpad Emojicoin.fun went live on Aptos mainnet; Aptos integrated Stripe and Circle’s USDC.
Arkham Intel announced the launch of a US spot trading platform.
Jito token holders are set for payouts under the TipRouter proposal.
DCG launched a subsidiary focused on decentralized AI.
Justin Sun purchased "The Banana" for $6.2 million.
WisdomTree introduced a low-cost XRP ETP on European exchanges.
Sui network resumed after a scheduling bug caused two-hour downtime; announced partnership with Franklin Templeton.
Mastercard and JPMorgan partnered to integrate foreign exchange on the blockchain.
The Graph introduced the GRC-20 standard for Web3 data structuring.
Cardano's ADA surged to $0.90, its highest in 2.5 years, as whale holdings surpassed $12 billion.
MetaMask’s Gas Station to remove Ethereum fees for seamless DeFi swaps.
Monad testnet began rolling out on its Ethereum-compatible Layer 1.
3️⃣ Market overview
Crypto/Macro market
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust Achieves Milestone with Options Trading Approval
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust became the first U.S. spot bitcoin ETF to allow options trading. This triggered a bitcoin price surge to nearly $98,000 on Thursday, marking a new all-time high.Institutional Interest in MicroStrategy Skyrockets
MicroStrategy's bitcoin holdings now exceed $30 billion after a record $4.6 billion purchase. Institutional investments in MicroStrategy rose to $15.3 billion, with major players like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs significantly increasing their stakes. MSTR shares have gained roughly 450% YTD, outpacing bitcoin's 110% gain.Trump Weighs Teresa Goody Guillén for SEC Chair
Teresa Goody Guillén, a pro-crypto securities lawyer, is being considered by Donald Trump for SEC chair. Her appointment would likely introduce crypto-friendly regulatory reforms, marking a potential shift from current enforcement-heavy policies.Meme Coins Surge Amid Dogecoin Rally
Memecoins like Bonk (BONK), Mog (MOG), and Brett (BRETT) hit all-time highs, driven by DOGE’s rally to $0.43. BONK surged 120% following a token burn campaign, while Mog and Brett also hit record levels.Russia Drafts Crypto Tax Reforms
Proposed amendments classify digital assets as property, introducing a 15% tax on mining and trading income. VAT exemptions for crypto transactions aim to stimulate market activity while miners can deduct operational expenses.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
Rising US inflation expectations have pushed bond yields and the dollar higher, pressuring global currencies and fueling inflation abroad. China faces challenges managing the renminbi, while emerging markets risk tighter policies due to depreciation. Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts signals fewer December cuts, while potential US tariffs may act as negotiation tools rather than outright policy.
🟢 US Inflation Expectations Drive Market Moves:
The five-year breakeven inflation rate has risen by 50 basis points since mid-September, with bond yields climbing and the US dollar appreciating. Tax cuts, deregulation, and potential tariffs are expected to boost demand and inflation.🟡 Dollar Strength Impacts Global Economies:
A stronger dollar pressures other currencies, creating inflationary effects abroad but suppressing US inflation and export competitiveness. Emerging markets face tighter monetary policy due to depreciating currencies.🔴 China's Managed Exchange Rate Under Pressure:
A rising US dollar may force China to either allow renminbi depreciation or tighten monetary policy, complicating capital flow management. Depreciation could help offset tariffs on Chinese exports.🔴 Fed Signals Patience on Rate Cuts:
Fed Chair Powell emphasized no urgency to lower rates, citing a strong economy. Markets now show a 42% probability of no rate cut in December, up from 14% a month ago.🟡 Trade Negotiation Speculation:
Analysts suggest potential US tariffs could be a negotiating tactic rather than an outright policy, mirroring strategies seen in 2019 with China.
🟢 US inflation edged up slightly in October, with CPI at 2.6% YoY and core inflation steady at 3.3%, reflecting persistent wage-driven service inflation. Markets remained stable, but the US dollar reached a six-month high amid tariff expectations and higher borrowing cost forecasts. Household debt-to-income ratios are historically low, yet rising credit card delinquencies (7.1%) signal potential consumer spending slowdowns, which could temper GDP growth in 2025. Tariff impacts on the trade deficit remain limited due to offsetting currency movements.
Inflation Holds Steady but Signals Mixed Trends
October inflation edged up slightly, with CPI at 2.6% YoY and core inflation steady at 3.3%. While overall inflation nears the Fed's 2% target, persistent service inflation, driven by rising wages, may limit future rate cuts.Market Stability Amid Rising Dollar
Financial markets showed minimal reaction to the inflation report, but the US dollar hit a six-month high due to expectations of higher borrowing costs and potential tariffs. Currency movements underscore the complex interplay between trade policies and macroeconomic fundamentals.Resilient Household Debt, But Credit Card Risks Loom
While US household debt-to-income ratios remain historically low, a sharp rise in credit card delinquencies (7.1%) poses risks to consumer spending, particularly on big-ticket items, potentially slowing GDP growth in 2025.Tariffs and Trade Deficit Myths
Tariffs are unlikely to reduce the trade deficit as they are offset by currency movements. Structural shifts in saving and investment behavior remain the true determinants of the deficit.Tight Labor Market and Wage Pressures Persist
Service inflation reflects rising labor costs, but productivity gains could help temper long-term inflationary pressures, offering hope for economic stability.
5️⃣ Europe Spotlight🔴
Eurozone industrial output remains weak amid high costs and sluggish demand, while resilient consumer spending and a service-driven economy offer some stability. Inflation persists in services, reflecting uneven recovery across the region.
Eurozone Industrial Production Declines: Down 2% MoM and 2.8% YoY in October, with a cumulative 8.3% drop since peaking in February 2023.
Sector Performance: Energy output fell 1.5%, capital goods dropped 3.8%, while durable (+0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (+1.6%) showed resilience.
Country Trends: Industrial output declined sharply in Germany (-2.7%) and the Netherlands (-2.9%), while Spain (+0.9%) and Belgium (+0.4%) saw gains.
Key Drivers of Weakness: High energy costs, elevated interest rates, weak external demand, and tight fiscal policies weigh on industrial output.
Consumer and Services Growth: Consumer goods output rebounded, supported by rising real wages and job growth. Services remain the primary driver of Eurozone economic growth amid persistent inflation in that sector.