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Macro Pulse Update 27.04.2024, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Last week
Next Week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Market and Regulatory Updates
ConsenSys Sues SEC Over Ethereum's Security Status
Bitcoin Mixer Founders Arrested Amid Privacy Debate
Blockchain Advocates Challenge SEC's Dealer Rule
Stablecoin Market Shows Remarkable Growth
Scandals and Controversies
ZKasino Scandal: Accusations of Exit Scam Emerge
ezETH Crisis Sparks DeFi Liquidation and Controversy
DeGods Considers Returning to Solana Amid Controversy
Yuga Labs Criticized for WEF Partnership
Crypto Exchanges and Platforms
Changpeng Zhao Faces Possible 3-Year Sentence
Shiba Inu Launches Privacy-Focused Blockchain Upgrade
OpenSea Sees Significant Drop in Monthly NFT Sales
Alien Punk CryptoPunk #635 Fetches $12.38 Million
"Buy Bitcoin" Notepad Sells for Over $1 Million
Altcoins
Twelve Solana presale memecoins were abandoned after a month.
Thailand blocked access to unauthorized crypto platforms.
Finnish authorities discovered €30 million in unreported crypto gains in 2023.
Woo X exchange launched the world's first tokenized T-bills for retail.
Ontology announced a $10 million community investment.
Celo selected Optimism after a layer 2 comparison contest.
Midas planned a crypto trading product after raising $45 million.
The NYSE considered 24/7 trading to match crypto markets.
Europe's largest banks moved into crypto, encouraged by regulations.
Akash Network's token surged 50% on Upbit listing.
Millions of dollars in crypto assets remained unclaimed in DeFi bridge contracts.
A patched Cosmos bug could have put $150M at risk.
GuildFi rebranded to Zentry with a 1-for-10 token split.
Crypto.com postponed its South Korea launch after money laundering probe reports.
Tether vowed to freeze assets after Venezuela sought to bypass oil sanctions using crypto.
Injective's INJ 3.0 upgrade went live after community approval.
Safe token traded at a $2.8 billion FDV after becoming transferable.
Hedera's value jumped amid BlackRock confusion.
FLOKI and BONK were listed on Revolut.
Indonesia and Australia inked a crypto taxation deal.
Ripple shifted to USDT for U.S. operations amid regulatory pressure.
Nigeria's central bank denied claims of crypto account freezes.
Worldcoin planned to boost WLD supply by 19% in the next six months.
Hedge funds embraced memecoins, aiming for high returns.
Starknet reopened STRK airdrop claims to three user groups.
Chainlink introduced a new protocol to enhance cross-chain interoperability.
Robinhood listed SHIB, AVAX, COMP for trading in New York.
BNB Chain enabled native liquid staking on BSC.
Avail's Data Availability was integrated by multiple blockchain platforms.
Stripe planned to reintroduce crypto payments in the coming months.
Immutable launched a $50 million crypto gaming rewards program.
Forbes labeled XRP and Cardano as crypto zombies, sparking community disagreement.
Over 30 people were charged in a $24M crypto fraud linked to Taiwan's ACE Exchange.
Wormhole's W token went live on EVM chains.
Algorand courted Python developers to drive significant changes.
Franklin Templeton tokenized a $380 million U.S. government money fund on Polygon and Stellar.
Terraform Labs restricted U.S. access and withdrew $23 million of liquidity following an SEC ruling.
Solana Mobile's 'Chapter 2' airdrops briefly exceeded the cost of pre-orders.
More of FTX's Solana assets were sold to Pantera Capital.
Aligned Layer raised $20M to accelerate ZK proofs on Ethereum, powered by EigenLayer.
Pantera Capital aimed to raise $1 billion for a new blockchain fund set for a 2025 launch.
A rare Bitcoin unit sold for $2.1 million during a Bitcoin halving event.
Heroes of Mavia delayed Ethereum token unlocks.
3️⃣ Market overview
The halving sparked record Bitcoin miner revenue and ETF inflows, while Dorsey aims to decentralize mining and Ripple battles the SEC. Inflation data tempered ahead of the Fed meeting, and Tether took action related to alleged sanction evasion using crypto.
Bitcoin miners earned a record $107.7 million in revenue on the day of the latest Bitcoin halving, smashing the previous single-day record.
Jack Dorsey's Block has developed a 3nm Bitcoin mining chip and plans to offer a full Bitcoin mining system to help decentralize mining.
U.S. economic data shows some signs of cooling inflation ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, raising hopes the Fed may hold rates steady.
Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. saw a rebound in inflows after the halving, with over $62 million in inflows on the day after.
Ripple has hit back against a proposed $2 billion fine from the SEC in their ongoing legal battle over XRP's status as a security.
Tether announced it will freeze addresses linked to OFAC-sanctioned entities after a report that Venezuela's state oil company used crypto to evade sanctions.
The regulatory landscape remains complex, with crypto industry groups suing the SEC over its recent dealer definition expansion.
While GDP growth slowed and inflation persisted, putting the Fed in a difficult spot, strong earnings from tech giants like Alphabet provided a counterbalance, though Meta's AI ambitions spooked some investors amid the growth concerns signaled by GDP.
U.S. GDP Growth Slows, Inflation Persists
U.S. GDP grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1, below expectations
However, underlying demand remained strong with final sales to private domestic purchasers up 3.1%
Inflation picked up more than expected, with core PCE price index up 3.7%
This data adds pressure on the Fed to potentially delay interest rate cuts
Alphabet Exceeds Expectations, Announces Buybacks & Dividend
Alphabet's Q1 earnings and revenue beat estimates, sending shares up 14%
EPS of $1.89 and revenue of $80.54 billion driven by YouTube ads and Google Cloud
Announced $70 billion buyback and first-ever 20 cent per share dividend
CEO cited leadership in AI as positioning company for future innovation
Stocks Slide on Meta Spending Plans, GDP Data
U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday, with Dow down 1%, Nasdaq down 0.6%
Meta shares plunged 10.6% after increasing AI spending forecast
Treasury yields jumped on GDP data, with 10-year yield over 4.73%
Investors await next week's JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🔴 Powell confirmed a more hawkish policy outlook, dashing hopes of rapid rate cuts as the Fed wants to see sustained inflation progress. Markets calibrated for a more protracted high interest rate environment, potentially putting the Fed behind other central banks in easing cycles.
Powell Signals More Patience on Rate Cuts
Powell said the Fed needs greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably to 2% before easing policy
Recent inflation data has not provided that confidence, likely requiring more time with restrictive policy
Market expectations shift after Powell's remarks, markets now see only one rate cut in 2024 as most likely as rate cut timing pushed out to September from previous expectation of June
Fed Falling Behind Other Central Banks
Investors now expect the ECB and BOE to cut rates before the Fed
This could put upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, creating disinflationary pressures but hurting exports
Policy Outlook Rationale
Elevated rates have not significantly weakened the labor market so far
Fed likely wants to avoid cutting rates prematurely and risking an overheated economy
Current rates seen as supporting strong growth while allowing inflation to ease gradually
🟢 The better-than-expected retail sales figures highlight the resilience of the U.S. consumer, driven by solid fundamentals like the job market and incomes. The broad-based spending gains across categories, outside of some weakness, points to an economy defying higher interest rates so far.
Retail sales rose 0.7% month-over-month and 4% year-over-year in March
Auto sales declined 0.7%, but excluding autos, retail sales rose 1.1% m/m
Supported by growing employment, rising real wages so consumers willing to dip into savings and take on debt hence there’s little inflation impact as goods prices are relatively stable
The robust retail spending is in Feb/March to boost Q1 GDP growth, demonstrates ongoing strength in the consumer economy
5️⃣ China Spotlight🟢
While GDP accelerated, driven partly by state-backed investment, consumption, industrial activity and the property sector showed signs of weakness. Deflationary pressures and lack of organic demand remain concerns, presenting challenges for sustained growth without policy support.
Here are the key points regarding China's economic data:
China's Q1 GDP grew 5.3% year-over-year, faster than expected. However, other indicators painted a mixed picture of economic weakness
Industrial output grew 4.5% in March y/y, the slowest pace since Sept 2023. Manufacturing component rose 5.1%, down sharply from prior month
Retail sales up only 3.1% in March y/y, slowest increase since July 2023. Declines seen in auto sales, while furniture and clothing sales were sluggish
Deflation risks as producer prices fall and home prices dropped 2.2% y/y in March. Weak foreign investment and rising household savings amid property slump.
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