Macro Pulse Update 28.09.2024

Monthly candle closes in 4 days

We got our rate cuts, CZ out of jail

Uptober be a ride with elections and year end with new year 👇🧵

Macro Pulse Update 28.09.2024, covering the following topics:

1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics

1️⃣ Macro events for the week

Last Week

Next Week

2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator

Banking and Regulatory Updates

• Visa, PayPal, BNY Expand Crypto Services

• TrueUSD Faces SEC Charges for Investor Fraud

Project Launches and Developments

• Hamster Kombat Faces Airdrop Controversy

• Blockchain Funding Surges With $100M Celestia Raise

Crypto Investments and Strategies

• Grayscale’s Top 20 Cryptos for Q4 2024

Privacy and Policy Changes

• Telegram Shares User Data for Legal Requests

Stablecoin and Token Developments

• Ethena Launches BlackRock-Backed Stablecoin UStb

Memecoins and Market Trends

• MOODENG Memecoin Surges, Faces Liquidity Concerns

NFT Market and Platforms

• SunPump and APENFT Launch NFT Platform on TRON

• STEPN GO, adidas Expand NFT Sneaker Partnership

• CryptoPunks Debuts Luxury Hoodie Collection

Altcoins

• Circle sought to legitimize USDC and EURC as official EU currency.

• Investor worries led BlackRock to demand quicker Coinbase withdrawals.

• Bitfarms and Riot settled a dispute by making board changes.

• Kraken expanded its European reach by acquiring a Dutch crypto broker.

• Arbitrum DAO planned to allocate $145 million for partnerships.

• Former Alameda CEO Ellison received a two-year sentence for her role in FTX's collapse.

• WalletConnect opened WCT token airdrop registration to boost engagement.

• Banana Gun confirmed a $3M loss and planned user refunds.

• Vitalik Buterin praised Celo Blockchain for outperforming Tron.

• Chainlink projected the tokenized asset market to reach $10T by 2030.

• South Korea fined Worldcoin $860K for data collection non-compliance.

• Report revealed most airdrop tokens crashed within 15 days of listing.

• LayerZero activity surged 433% after a second airdrop announcement.

• Avalanche announced a $40M grant program before the Avalanche9000 upgrade.

• WazirX received a 4-month, $230M debt repayment extension from a Singapore court.

• Coinbase’s Base surpassed $2B in TVL, becoming the second-largest optimistic rollup.

• Floki and BNB Chain launched the GraFun meme coin launchpad.

• U.S. authorities charged two Russians with crypto money laundering, offering a $10M reward.

• Prominent Listings/Trading Support:

• Hamster Kombat (HMSTR): All major exchanges

• Binance: Aavegotchi (GHST) - Margined perpetual, Worldcoin (WLD) - Futures, REI Netowrk (REI) - Futures

• Coinbase: CoW Protocol (COW), ZKsync (ZK), Moonwell (WELL)

• Coinbase International: Catizen (CATI) - perpetual futures

3️⃣ Market overview

Crypto Overview

• SEC Approves Options Trading on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: The SEC has granted Nasdaq’s request to list and trade options on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, introducing new hedging tools for investors. A position limit of 25,000 contracts has been imposed, which Nasdaq criticized as overly conservative.

• 2rypto Investment Products Attract $321 Million After Fed Rate Cut: Crypto investment products saw a second consecutive week of inflows, totaling $321 million, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Bitcoin investment products led with $284 million in inflows, while Ethereum-based products continued to see outflows.

• Lawmakers Urge SEC to Withdraw Crypto Custody Rule (SAB 121): Over 40 Republican lawmakers have called on SEC Chair Gary Gensler to rescind the crypto custody rule known as Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 (SAB 121). They argue that the rule increases consumer risk and stifles financial innovation.

• Former Alameda Research CEO Sentenced in FTX Fraud Case: Caroline Ellison, ex-CEO of Alameda Research, was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX fraud case. Despite her cooperation in the case against Sam Bankman-Fried, she is required to serve time and will have $11 billion confiscated.

• OpenAI’s X Account Hacked to Promote Crypto Scam: OpenAI’s official news account on X (formerly Twitter) was compromised, with hackers promoting a fake “$OPENAI” token. The fraudulent post directed users to a spoof website, attempting to deceive followers.

• PayPal Expands Crypto Services to Business Accounts: PayPal announced it will allow business accounts to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrencies. This move further integrates crypto transactions into its platform, making it more accessible for merchants.

4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics

🟢 United States: Consumer in the Spotlight

• Inflation Remains in Check: Recent personal income and spending data indicate that inflation is under control, providing a positive outlook for household finances.

• Resilient Consumer Spending: Despite shifts in underlying dynamics, consumer spending remains robust, signaling strong consumer confidence.

• Housing Activity Remains Slow: Although lower interest rates from the Fed's easing policy should benefit real estate, housing activity continues to be sluggish.

🔴 International: Eurozone Economy at Risk of Renewed Stumble

• Disappointing PMIs: Eurozone's September manufacturing and services PMIs showed a decline in output and orders, raising concerns about economic momentum.

• Easing Price Pressures: Despite the slowdown, the PMIs indicated a general softening in price pressures within the Eurozone.

• Global Central Bank Actions:

  • Interest Rate Cuts: China, Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Mexico all lowered interest rates.

  • Monetary Policy Hold: Australia maintained its current monetary policy stance.

🟢 Credit Market Insights: Is the Tide Turning for Commercial Real Estate?

• Fed's Rate Cut Offers Relief: The recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the beginning of potential recovery for the commercial real estate (CRE) sector.

• Reduced Refinancing Gap: Lower interest rates are expected to ease the refinancing challenges for maturing CRE debt, limiting further stress in the sector.

• Office Sector Challenges Persist: Despite overall improvements, the office real estate market continues to face significant hurdles due to reduced demand and lease rollovers.