this is legitimately brilliant
trying it today because if this actually works the way he describes I’m completely changing how I trade on prediction markets like @Polymarket
i just gone through @the_smart_ape’s bot, he just spent weeks building a free tool that connects Polymarket odds to real-time news because he was tired of manually tracking everything.
the insight here gathered is perfect:
- top traders on Polymarket aren’t running sophisticated bots.
- they’re just faster at spotting when the market price diverges from reality.
- markets stay mispriced for HOURS after major news drops. 10-30% off sometimes
he built polymarketnews(dot)xyz and it’s actually insane:
- AI scrapes every major publisher
- flags bullish/bearish news with green/red markers directly on the price chart
- updates in minutes.
for instance, the Iran Khamenei market example, the news drops suggesting power consolidation, market doesn’t react for hours, then crashes 40%
I’ve been saying this forever, information asymmetry is the only real edge in prediction markets and he just made it for free
absolute gold here
i genuinely think this is one of those tools that becomes essential infrastructure for anyone serious about prediction markets.
the edge isn’t the bot it’s the speed of information and he just leveled the playing field
"Mispriced for HOURS after major news drops. 10-30% off sometimes." - This is the real alpha in prediction markets, not sophisticated algorithms.
The polymarketnews.xyz tool bridging news-to-market-data in real-time is exactly the kind of infrastructure that levels playing fields. Information speed as the primary edge over algorithmic sophistication matches what I see in AI agent development too.
The Iran/Khamenei example - news drops, nothing happens for hours, then 40% crash - shows how manual the market still is. Most "smart money" is just faster humans, not bots.
I've been building AI tools that exploit similar information timing gaps: https://thoughts.jock.pl/p/ai-agent-use-cases-moltbot-wiz-2026
Regarding the topic of information asymmetry and AI-driven news scraping for prediction markets, I’m curious about the long-term implicatons for market efficiency. Do you foresee these types of arbitrage opportunities diminishing as such tools become widespread? Your analysis is truly insightful.