The March Signal: Bottoming, Rebalancing

Macro Pulse Update 23.03.2025

Mar 23, 2025

Most people are zoomed into the next 3 months. I’m zoomed out across the last 100 years.

Every major crash in the past 25 years bottomed in March.

Central banks are quietly rotating out of the dollar. US equity allocations just saw their biggest drop on record.

And according to @CryptoCon’s 100-year Quartercent Cycles Theory, we just hit the 15-year top, a temporary correction before the final rally into 2028.

The model is still intact and we’re in the middle of a much bigger run.👇🧵

Think:

1930s Great Depression
1966–1977 stagnation
2000–2008 twin crashes

Macro Pulse Update 23.03.2025, covering the following topics:

1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight

1️⃣ Macro events for the week

Previous Week

Next Week

2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator

Global Developments & Political Moves

Eric Trump Joins Metaplanet Advisory Board, Boosting Stock by 17%

Market Products & ETFs

Crypto ETFs Surge: Hashdex Seeks XRP, Solana Additions; SUI, Polkadot, and Solana Products Launch

Exchange & Platform Updates

Binance Launches 0% Trading Fee Promotion on Web3 Wallet Amidst Series of Upgrades and Initiatives

Cybersecurity & Threat Intelligence

Microsoft Detects StilachiRAT Malware Targeting Cryptocurrency Wallets

NFT & Digital Assets

LG to Close NFT Marketplace Art Lab Amid 70% Market Decline by June 17

Altcoins:

Fidelity, Robinhood, and BlackRock doubled down on crypto this week.
Key regulatory shifts emerged, including SEC tone changes and state bills.
US policy: SEC softened stance while states pushed forward bold Bitcoin legislation.
Strategy added 130 BTC; Metaplanet’s total BTC holdings neared 3,200.
Fidelity, Robinhood, and BlackRock increased TradFi-crypto integration efforts.
mubarak coin’s meteoric rise sparked market frenzy.
Lazarus Group’s BTC stash surpassed Bhutan and El Salvador’s reserves.
YZi Labs invested in Plume to boost real-world asset tokenization.
Wemix denied a cover-up in delayed $6.2M bridge hack disclosure.
Bybit’s founder traced 86% of stolen funds to 9,117 wallets.
Tether pursued a Big Four auditor for its first full audit.
Aave confirmed Horizon will not involve a new token launch.
OKX paused its DEX aggregator following the Bybit hack fallout.
Ethena and Securitize partnered to launch the Converge blockchain.
Arbitrum launched Onchain Labs to incubate early-stage crypto projects.
Microsoft flagged StilachiRAT malware targeting crypto browser extensions.
Cronos approved a controversial vote to reissue 70B burned tokens.
ZachXBT revealed Hyperliquid whale as a UK-based fraudster.
Ripple’s custody trademark filing sparked XRP wallet speculation.
Four.Meme resumed launch feature on BNB Chain after $130K hack.
AI trading agent aixbt was hacked for $100K.
Lisk kicked off the second season of its airdrop campaign.
BlackRock’s BUIDL, Superstate, and Centrifuge won Spark’s $1B RWA prize.
Coinbase planned onchain swaps for KYC-verified users.
Cosmos introduced native EVM via open-sourcing Evmos.
Bakkt stock fell nearly 30% after losing key banking partners.
EOS suffered address poisoning just after announcing a rebrand.
RAY surged after Raydium introduced its LaunchLab project.
Gotbit’s Russian founder reached a $23M plea deal with U.S. prosecutors.
PumpFun launched its native DEX, PumpSwap.
PancakeSwap climbed to third in crypto revenue rankings.
Uniswap raised $165M and announced plans for a fee switch.
MoonPay secured a $200M credit line from Galaxy to manage token hype.
Upbit denied listing fee claims and challenged Wu Blockchain for proof.
Watcher Guru’s X account was hacked to promote a fake XRP–SWIFT partnership.

3️⃣ Market overview

Markets Drop on Recession Fears: Bitcoin fell -8.6% to ~$80.9K and Ethereum plunged -15.9% as rising tariffs and economic uncertainty sparked a broad crypto and stock market sell-off.

Mt. Gox Moves $1B in BTC: The defunct exchange transferred ~11,500 BTC ahead of extended creditor repayment deadline (Oct 31, 2025); ~$2.8B BTC still held.
El Salvador Doubles Down: Despite IMF pressure, El Salvador now holds 6,111 BTC (~$500M), continuing its Bitcoin reserve accumulation under President Bukele.
HUD Eyes Blockchain: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is exploring blockchain and stablecoins for operational efficiency—no commitments yet.
Cantor Fitzgerald Enters Crypto Lending: Launches $2B Bitcoin financing initiative with Anchorage Digital and Copper.co to provide leveraged exposure for institutions.
Trump Tariff Impact: Market turbulence followed Trump's tariff hikes on China, with threats to expand them to Canada and Mexico, delaying implementation to April 2.

4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics

🔴 Macro Highlights

Recession Risks Rise: President Trump acknowledges a possible recession as markets react to tariff uncertainty; S&P 500 and NASDAQ suffer worst drop since 2022.
Inflation Decelerates, But Pressures Remain: February CPI showed slowing inflation, but tariffs could raise costs for U.S. producers and consumers.
Tariff Debate Intensifies: Commerce Secretary Lutnick admits tariffs may raise prices; Treasury Secretary Bessent defends them as a move toward fairer trade practices.
Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply: University of Michigan index drops to 64.7 in February, with durable goods sentiment hit hardest due to price fears.
Small Business Outlook Weakens: NFIB confidence index dips for second month, citing tariff impacts, inflation, and reduced government spending.
Labor Market Shows Cracks: Broader U-6 unemployment rate jumps from 7.5% to 8%, the highest since Oct 2021, indicating rising underemployment.
Markets Reflect Growing Caution: Equities slump, bond yields drop, and the dollar weakens—suggesting possible knock-on effects for consumer and investor behavior.

🔴 Inflation & Monetary Policy

US Inflation Cools: February CPI came in at 2.8% YoY, down from 3% in January—its lowest level since October; core inflation also dropped to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021.
Market Bets on Fed Rate Cuts: Futures now show a 60% chance of 3+ rate cuts in 2025, up sharply from 7.4% a month ago, driven by cooling inflation and slowing economic signals.
Durable Goods Prices Drop: Prices for durable goods fell 1.2%, and services inflation slowed to 4.1%—the lowest since Dec 2021, signaling waning wage-driven pressure.
Egg Prices Spike: Notably, eggs surged 58.8% due to avian flu; meanwhile, smartphones (-13.7%) and tomatoes (-9.7%) saw steep declines.
Fed in a Better Position: Easing job market tightness and improving productivity suggest the Fed may feel more comfortable lowering rates to support growth.
Tariff Uncertainty Looms: New tariffs on China are now active, with more on the table. Broad tariff hikes could reverse inflation progress and constrain the Fed’s flexibility.
Mixed Outlook Ahead: While inflation deceleration opens the door to easing, potential tariff shocks and political uncertainty keep risk elevated for investors and businesses.

5️⃣ EU Spotlight🔴

Europe Ramps Up Defense Spending: Driven by reduced trust in the U.S. as an ally (only 16% of Europeans view it as reliable), the EU is preparing to increase defense budgets, potentially reviving growth via fiscal stimulus.
EU Debt Expansion Ahead: Proposed defense spending will likely be financed through borrowing, opening the door to faster economic growth, a stronger euro, and delayed ECB rate cuts.
Euro’s Global Role Could Rise: A joint EU defense framework and union-wide debt issuance could boost the euro’s global standing, challenging the dominance of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar.
Germany as the Growth Engine: Germany may raise debt by up to €2 trillion, breaking previous taboos, thanks to a low debt-to-GDP ratio and shifting political will.
Implications for Investors: A booming European bond market could increase euro-denominated asset appeal, while also raising sovereign yields and tightening credit conditions.

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1903767190966538303

Threading on the Edge

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