I’ve got wrecked on ETH because most breakouts fail.
Macro now confirms the slow-hand approach.
Global M2 liquidity is still the easiest, dumbest north star for crypto: when M2 turns up, Bitcoin follows, and ETH eventually rides.
Ignore it and you chase tops; front-run it and you’re early.
So the distilled framework is: respect ETH’s range until it proves otherwise, watch M2 for the real macro trigger, and position early in decentralized AI infra.
Nvidia tripled its valuation in 18 months, and VCs are showering every LLM startup. The stack is still painfully centralized. If regulators tighten the screws on the hyperscalers, capital has to rotate somewhere and open, permissionless infra starts looking like the only real alternative.
So the playbook is simple, if not sexy:
• Trade ETH like the range it is, not the breakout you wish it were.
• Track global M2; it’s still the North Star for risk.
• Accumulate the infra that will matter when AI capital finally hunts for open rails.
How you can front-run the crowd with a repeatable framework👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 14.06.2025, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ EU, Japan Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Previous Week
Next Week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Launches
Morpho V2: Introduced an intent-based system for fixed-rate, fixed-term lending/borrowing with rate guarantees.
Gyroscope: Deployed Dynamic E-CLPs on Superchain, starting with ETH/USDC pools on Base and Optimism.
Syntor: Launched mainnet enabling decentralized AI trading.
EulerSwap: Set to launch mainnet with just-in-time liquidity, backed by Chainlink price feeds.
Enso: Token sale now live on CoinList, offering better terms to the community than VCs.
Aerodrome DEX: Integration into the Coinbase app announced.
Spark: Ignition Phase 1 airdrop eligibility checker launched (SPK token).
InfiniFi: Launched iUSD yield trading on Pendle with 4.5x points boost.
Re7 Labs: rstETH now live on Gearbox, offering restaking yield and airdrop eligibility.
Protocol Updates
XAUt0: Gold token now live on HyperEVM, tradeable on Hyperliquid Spot.
Felix Protocol: Deployed USDhl, a fiat-backed stablecoin aligned with Hyperliquid.
Yearn: Launched ETH and DAI curation vaults on Ethereum and Base, integrated with Morpho.
Pendle: Added Aave’s sGHO with up to 20% APR and integrated with Converge for institutional yield trading.
Circle x Matera: USDC now supported for real-time BRL/USD settlement in traditional banks via Pix.
LayerZero x Lagrange: $LA token live; Lagrange joins LayerZero as DVN across 7 chains.
Avalanche: Now supported on Infinex for dApp access.
ListaDAO: Integrated solvBTC, enabling USD1 borrowing.
Ozean x ArtWiseDAO: Fine art tokenization and lending up to 70% LTV.
Polygon’s POL: Bridged to Solana via Wormhole Portal.
Uniswap Wallet: Enabled smart wallet function with one-click, bundled swaps.
Liquity: BOLD and sBOLD now usable as collateral on Euler Finance.
ether.fi: weETH bridgeable to Avalanche with 60-day AVAX incentive program.
WLFI: USD1 launched on Tron for broader DeFi utility.
Ondo Finance: OUSG (RWA-backed) live on XRPL, mintable with RLUSD.
Morpho: Integrated Deblock Vaults for fiat-to-stablecoin conversion and yield.
Maple: Added mSOL collateral support.
Lido x Balancer: wstETH liquidity incentives via Balancer Alliance.
Liquidity: Launched sBOLD with auto-compounding and more DeFi integrations.
Trendsdotfun: Fully integrated on Jupiter for narrative and token trend trading.
Airdrops
Spark Ignition: 17% of SPK (1B supply) will go to pre-miners, participants, and questers.
Infinex x sKAITO: Airdrop live for sKAITO and YT-sKAITO holders (snapshot: June 4).
Matchain: TGE confirmed for June 19, 2025.
Gliquid: Launched points program distributing pGLQ and $HYPE over 4 months.
Shadow Exchange: Distributing $435,245+ in vote rewards and rebase incentives.
dYdX: Season 2 rewards live; 160+ traders to receive $1,000+; Season 3 begins.
DIA: Genesis Staking rewards claimable; unlock principal and claim $DIA.
Farms & Yield
Balancer: New LP pool with GHO + USDf offering up to 74% APR (with Aave lending rewards).
Pendle: sGHO (Aave) listings with ~8% APY and liquidity APR up to 20%.
Re7 Labs rstETH: Earn up to 20% APR + multiple airdrops via EigenLayer ecosystem.
infiniFi iUSD: Yield trading offers >15% APY and PT rollovers with bonus boosts.
Dolomite pol-rUSD: Offers up to 40% APR with leveraged loop options.
KelpDAO rsETH: Now live on Unichain via Morpho with multiple reward layers: 15% APR + OP/MORPHO/USDC incentives.
3️⃣ Market overview
Inflation stays muted at 2.8% for May, setting the stage for potential Fed rate cuts, likely in September and late 2025.
Crypto market sentiment improving, though global tensions and gold demand are tempering momentum.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins proposed a DeFi “innovation exemption”, aiming to reduce enforcement risk for decentralized developers.
→ Could reshape U.S. DeFi regulation and boost developer confidence.
Ethereum outpaced Bitcoin in derivatives volume:
→ $110B (ETH) vs. $85B (BTC) in 24 hours
→ Driven by ETH ETF inflows ($890M in 16 days) and DeFi resurgence.
→ Catalyzed by Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and Foundation restructuring.
Societe Generale launches USD CoinVertible (USDCV) on Ethereum and Solana:
→ Fully compliant with EU MiCA rules
→ Custodied by BNY Mellon
Deutsche Bank may issue its own stablecoin and build a tokenized deposit system:
→ Exploring new payment infrastructure amid global stablecoin growth
Strategy (likely MicroStrategy) purchased 1,045 BTC (~$110.2M), raising total holdings to 582,000 BTC (~2.8% of total supply)
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🔴 Understanding the U.S. Trade Deficit
1. The U.S. Runs a Trade Deficit
The U.S. consistently imports more goods than it exports (merchandise deficit) but exports more services than it imports (services surplus).
Overall, this results in a current account deficit—meaning foreigners are left holding more U.S. dollars than they spend on American goods or services.
2. Why the Deficit Exists: Capital Must Balance
Foreigners holding U.S. dollars often reinvest them in U.S. assets—stocks, real estate, and especially government bonds.
This inflow of capital is called a capital account surplus, and it mathematically offsets the trade deficit (as per balance of payments accounting).
3. A Deficit Isn’t Inherently Bad
A capital surplus implies the U.S. is an attractive destination for global investment.
Benefits include lower borrowing costs, higher investment, and economic growth—all positive outcomes, reframing the trade deficit as a potential side effect of global confidence in the U.S. economy.
4. When Deficits Become Dangerous
Trade deficits can become problematic when they lead to excessive foreign debt, especially for emerging markets.
However, the U.S. is not in this situation—it benefits from dollar dominance and remains a magnet for global capital.
5. The Link Between Budget Deficit and Trade Deficit
The U.S. government’s large budget deficit requires financing—often from foreign investors buying U.S. bonds.
As borrowing increases, so does the trade deficit, since foreign capital inflows must rise to fund it.
If foreign appetite for U.S. debt wanes, it could lead to higher bond yields and a weaker dollar—both of which are being observed.
6. Proposed Tax on Foreign Investment Raises Concerns
A new bill (section 899) proposes taxing foreign investors from countries that “discriminate” against the U.S.
While it’s politically framed as retaliatory, it risks reducing foreign investment and raising borrowing costs—potentially backfiring economically.
7. Trump-Era Economists Want to Curb Inbound Investment
Stephen Miran argues that foreign capital inflows strengthen the dollar, making U.S. exports less competitive and hurting manufacturing.
His proposed remedy: curtail inbound investment to rebalance trade and boost industry.
But critics point out that dollar dominance also enables growth, innovation, and fiscal flexibility—so reducing capital inflows could backfire.🔴 U.S. Job Market – Strength on the Surface, Stress Underneath
5️⃣ EU, Japan Spotlight
🟢 Eurozone: Inflation Falls, ECB Moves to Stimulate
Inflation is cooling rapidly
Headline inflation dropped to 1.9% in May, core inflation to 2.3%—the lowest in years.
Service and goods inflation also eased, indicating broad-based price stability.
Insight: With inflation anchored, the ECB has space to continue easing without risking price instability.
ECB cuts rates again
The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points, totaling 200 bps in cuts since June 2024.
Despite rate cuts, the euro has strengthened due to declining confidence in the dollar.
Insight: Monetary easing is not triggering currency depreciation—creating a rare window for stimulus.
Trade tensions are a key risk
A proposed 50% U.S. tariff on EU goods hangs over ongoing negotiations.
Existing product-specific tariffs could still provoke EU retaliation.
Insight: Escalation could disrupt disinflation progress and force a policy rethink.
Growth conditions improving
Falling interest rates, fiscal stimulus, and cheaper energy are supporting demand.
Insight: A recovery is possible—provided trade risks don’t undermine business and consumer confidence.
🔴 Japan: Demographic Collapse Accelerating
Births plummet faster than forecast
2024 saw a 5.7% drop in live births—the lowest since records began in 1899.
The fertility rate is down to 1.15, well below the 2.07 needed for population stability.
Insight: Japan’s demographic timeline has shifted forward by over a decade, intensifying urgency.
Labor force decline is coming
Female and elderly participation has delayed workforce shrinkage, but decline is expected by 2035.
Labor force projected to fall from 69.25 million (2023) to 62.87 million by 2050.
Insight: Absent major productivity gains, economic stagnation is likely.
Policy response remains limited
Productivity-enhancing investment is growing, but immigration remains minimal.
Insight: Without bold immigration or automation policies, Japan faces structural economic decline.