I believe the financial health of US banking sector, is in worse off conditions as compared to 2008. U.S. banks are holding over $482B in unrealized losses.
Let’s analyse structure:
The BTC/Gold ratio just flipped after months of underperformance. This always happens near the end of Gold rallies, liquidity rotates out, and Bitcoin takes the lead.
Every cycle, Gold hits ATHs while BTC consolidates. Then Bitcoin starts its move. That moment it’s here.
Add to that:
A Zweig Breadth Thrust just fired, one of the rarest and most powerful breadth signals being tracked.
Large specs flipped short just before the breakout.
Breadth/Thrust composite is at +6/8. One more push and we’re fully greenlit.
Technically, BTC printed a textbook double bottom on the weekly lower band. Volatility has compressed.
And sentiment wise, fear is still running hot.
Meanwhile, the backdrop is quietly combustible.
U.S. banks are holding $482B in unrealized losses. A silent crisis ticking under the surface. This isn’t 2008 but it’s the worst paper loss setup we’ve seen since then. The Fed isn’t tightening into this.
I believe thier next move will be supportive, not hawkish.
The real question is: Are you positioned for what happens after? 👇🧵
Macro Pulse Update 03.05.2025, covering the following topics:
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
3️⃣ Market overview
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
5️⃣ China Spotlight
1️⃣ Macro events for the week
Previous Week
Next Week
2️⃣ Bitcoin Buzz Indicator
Altcoin Highlights
$ZORA token live and claimable.
1inch launches on Solana to enhance DEX liquidity.
Aave adds RLUSD to Ethereum V3 with supply and borrow caps.
Aerodrome launching Flashblocks with 200ms confirmations in Q2.
Apostro integrates PT-sUSDe collateral on BNB Chain.
Arbitrum supports custom gas tokens for rollups.
Astar updates tokenomics to reduce inflation and shift rewards.
Aztec launches decentralized, privacy-preserving L2 with private contracts and user-run sequencer nodes.
Base begins Stage 1 Decentralization with fault proofs and council governance.
Bedrock offers uniBTC pools with up to 227% APR.
Beefy stablecoin vaults offer 28%+ yields.
Chaos Labs launches Smart Value Recapture monitoring for Aave.
Circle announces global stablecoin network CPN with 20+ partners.
Civitia rewards claimable on mainnet.
Clearpool Ozean Pre-Deposit Campaign with Droplets.
Clearpool to launch USDf stablecoin with Falcon on Ozean.
Coinbase & PayPal team up for stablecoin integration.
Coinbase adds support for Reserve Rights on Base.
Contango adds lvlUSD fixed yield markets with Pendle integration.
Curve adds $53M liquidity pool for RLUSD.
Dinero launches superETH LST for Optimism Superchain.
Dolomite opens $DOLO airdrop with liquidity rewards.
Enso enables 1-click LP migration across EVM chains.
Enso launching Speedrun for $ENSO airdrop May 6.
Ethena Labs’ USDtb goes live as margin collateral on Bybit.
Ethena integrates Pendle PTs into Aave, enabling up to 25% leveraged yield.
Ether.fi outlines future “DeFi bank” platform.
Ethereum R1 launches tokenless rollup built on Taiko's stack with public good funding until 2030.
Euler Labs launches Vault Swap for seamless vault migration.
Euler integrates eOracle with ERC-7726 for better pricing.
Euler offers $200K AVAX incentives for savUSD/USDT.
Frax North Star Upgrade goes live with token rename and gas role.
Frax renames FXS to FRAX, becoming core commodity token.
Gyroscope announces Dynamic CLPs for volatile pair exposure.
Halo launches HUSD stablecoin for Hyperliquid with treasury backing and yield.
Hyperlane HYPER token claims open April 23.
Hyperliquid implements new staking fee system May 5.
Hyperliquid's Twitter account compromised—avoid clicking links.
Ika launches airdrop tasks via GiveRep and token locks.
Infrared introduces Points rewards for liquidity provision.
Initia Mainnet goes live with appchain support and asset bridging.
Initia airdrop claim open until May 24.
Junction 2025 roadmap includes phased rollout and reward seasons.
Jupiter enables liquid-staked $JUP with lending and ASR rewards.
Jupiter launches Ultra v2 with MEV Protect, JupShield, gasless trading, and Juno liquidity optimizer.
Kelp integrates Chainlink PoR for rsETH collateral validation.
KiloEx resolves security breach, users reimbursed, bounty issued.
Layer3 launches Sonic Rush with team spotlights.
LayerZero enables OFT standard with LI.FI for seamless bridging.
LayerZero unveils vApp SDK for building verifiable, scalable cross-chain apps.
Ledger adds yield options to Ledger Live with up to 9.9% APY.
Level increases XP rewards for lvlUSD liquidity.
Level to allocate reserves to Steakhouse USDC vaults on Morpho.
Lido launches V3 Testnet on Hoodi Ethereum with modular staking primitives.
Liquity V2 mainnet redeploy by mid-May.
Lombard partners with EigenLayer for LBTC restaking.
Mastercard launches stablecoin payment capabilities.
Meteora launches Dynamic Bonding Curve SDK for launchpads.
Meteora's DAMM v2 integrates into Jupiter routing.
Mezo and Galxe offer mats and incentives.
MilkyWay Massdrop $MILK claim open until May 29, 2025.
Morpho deploys on Hyperliquid's HyperEVM.
Morpho launches on World App with $5M in rewards across vaults.
Movement delays MoveDrop due to sybil attacks and governance issues.
N1 launches testnet via invite.
Nexus Labs targets Q3 2025 Mainnet I.
OPEN launches decentralized stablecoin index DTF on Reserve protocol.
OpenEden boosts Bills points for holding YT-cUSDO.
Pareto launching $USP synthetic dollar with RWA yield.
Pell Network launches airdrop via Valor Quest on Galxe.
Pendle expands PT-sUSDe to Euler on BNB Chain.
Phantom adds gasless mobile swaps with $75 minimum trade.
Project Zero launches on peaq for AI agent access to onchain data.
RISC Zero releases Boundless protocol for ZK compute.
Renzo's ezSOL leveraged on Kamino with 24% APY.
Reserve runs Zealy quests with RSR incentives.
Resolv opens USR pool on Pendle BNB Chain with fixed APY and points.
Rings Protocol supports frxUSD collateral for scUSD minting.
Rumpel Labs Straw rewards Chapter 3 until June 1.
Scroll ends Sessions 2; future rewards tied to real usage.
Scroll upgrades to Stage 1 with OpenVM and user exits.
Scroll’s Phase 2 upgrade with lower fees and EIP support.
Shadow Exchange offers 435% APR on USDC/EURC.e pair.
Sign Airdrop claim opens April 28.
Solv Protocol OKX airdrop with BTC staking ends May 20.
SolvBTC.JUP now open without KYC for BTC delta-neutral yield.
Sonic Labs to support native USDC on Binance.
Soul Labs Fair Public Round for $SO begins May 16.
Soul Labs launches incentivized testnet with cross-chain lending using LayerZero.
Spectra upgrades AMM for 100x liquidity efficiency.
Stake DAO offers reUSD-sDOLA strategy via Onlyboost.
Stride launches Stride Swap DEX on Cosmos Hub with advanced features and stATOM integration.
Suilend SEND Points Season 2 ends May, airdrop incoming.
Superform adds cross-chain Euler vaults with curated strategies.
Superform boosts XP and POINTS for Avantis vaults.
Superform launches SuperUSDC PTs with up to 8.6% fixed APY and points.
SupraEVM Testnet Alpha launches with parallel execution, oracles, and native cross-chain features.
Swell reclaiming unclaimed wSWELL rewards from Feb 20 by May 15.
Tenderize exploit reveals ETH skimming backdoor—Dedaub flags red flags.
Trust Wallet launches Stablecoin Earn across multiple chains.
Velodrome secures $1M OP grant for Superchain liquidity.
Vertex Season 2 rewards live on Avalanche.
Vitalik proposes RISC-V to replace EVM for better efficiency.
f(x) Protocol launches fxSAVE stablecoin on Morpho.
3️⃣ Market overview
BlackRock Embraces Blockchain with $150B Tokenization Move
BlackRock filed to offer “DLT shares” of its Treasury Trust Fund via BNY Mellon, marking a major leap in asset tokenization. The shares, aimed at institutions, require a $3M minimum initial investment. CEO Larry Fink emphasized tokenization as the future of finance, provided robust identity verification measures are in place.
US GDP Drops, Bitcoin Soars Past $97K
The US reported a -0.3% GDP growth in Q1 alongside slower job creation and a 3.5% PCE inflation print. Despite the weak macro data, Bitcoin rebounded quickly and surged beyond $97,000, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against economic instability.
Arizona Pushes for First-Ever State Crypto Reserve
Arizona’s legislature passed bills allowing up to 10% of the state’s funds to be invested in Bitcoin and other digital assets. If signed, Arizona would become the first US state with a formal crypto reserve, echoing federal moves to establish strategic digital asset stockpiles.
DeFi Development Corp Targets $1B Raise to Boost Solana Strategy
DeFi Development Corp filed with the SEC to raise up to $1B for expanding its SOL holdings and validator operations. With $48M in SOL already acquired and a revamped leadership team, the firm is positioning itself as a major Solana-focused player.
Stripe Pilots Global Stablecoin Payments
Stripe opened a pilot for stablecoin payments targeting businesses outside the US, UK, and EU, following its acquisition of Bridge. With Citi predicting the stablecoin sector could grow to $3.7T by 2030, Stripe’s move signals growing institutional bets on digital dollar rails.
4️⃣ Key Economic Metrics
🔴 US Economic Standing
1. Economic Growth Slowing, Uncertainty Rising
Preliminary Q1 GDP shows a contraction of -0.3%, missing expectations of +0.2%.
The Federal Reserve’s April Beige Book reflects widespread stagnation or modest decline across most regions.
Uncertainty around international trade policy, particularly tariffs, is a dominant concern across all sectors.
2. Consumer and Business Confidence Declines Sharply
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 52.2 in April, marking the lowest level since 2022.
Expectations for future economic conditions dropped steeply, indicating deepening consumer pessimism.
S&P Global’s April Flash PMI revealed the weakest business activity growth in 16 months, with sentiment about future output at a two-year low.
While manufacturing sentiment improved slightly, services experienced a pronounced downturn.
3. Labor Market Shows Tentative Resilience but Hiring Slows
Employment held steady or increased slightly in most regions, but hiring is slowing, especially among consumer-facing firms.
Government-funded roles saw the most significant cuts, and several businesses are delaying hiring decisions due to economic uncertainty.
Labor availability improved slightly, but some regions reported constraints tied to shifting immigration policies.
4. Inflation Expectations Climb Amid Cost Pressures
Firms report rising input costs due to tariffs, with many receiving advance pricing increases from suppliers.
Price growth in April was the fastest in over a year for both goods and services.
Consumer inflation expectations surged from 5% in March to 6.5% in April—the highest since October 1981.
The increase in inflation expectations may limit the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to reduce interest rates despite slowing growth.
5. Trade and Travel-Related Weaknesses
Non-automotive consumer spending declined, while auto purchases spiked, attributed to pre-tariff buying.
Business and personal travel activity fell, with a notable drop in foreign tourism, contributing to weaker service-sector exports.
6. Overall Business Sentiment Deteriorating
Firms are increasingly uncertain about future conditions, taking conservative approaches to hiring, investment, and pricing.
The services sector is bearing the brunt of the downturn, while manufacturing remains stagnant with minimal upside from trade policy.
🔴 Global Outlook Deterioration
1. Global Growth Outlook Downgraded Significantly
The IMF revised global GDP growth down from 3.3% (January) to 2.8% (April).
This marks a substantial decline in expectations due to a combination of protectionist policies, policy unpredictability, and weaker global demand.
2. US Tariff Surge Triggers Historic Policy Shift
The average US tariff rate has reached its highest level since the early 20th century, exceeding even the rise seen after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.
This tariff escalation has been cited as a major negative shock to global growth and a key reason for the IMF's pessimistic revision.
3. Sharp Downgrade in US Economic Forecast
US GDP growth is now projected at 1.8% for 2025, down from 2.7% in January.
The IMF attributes this to rising trade tensions, increased policy uncertainty, and softer consumption growth.
A projected decline in US exports is also contributing, as a stronger dollar is expected to make US goods less competitive abroad—though in reality, the dollar has recently weakened due to shifts in global investor sentiment.
4. Broad-Based Revisions Across Major Economies
Eurozone: Growth revised from 1% to 0.8%, with Germany flatlining at 0%.
United Kingdom and Japan: Each saw 0.5 percentage point cuts in expected growth.
UK: Now forecast at 1.1%
Japan: Now forecast at 0.6%
Canada and China: Revised down by 0.6 percentage points.
Canada: Now at 1.4%
China: Now at 4.0%, notably lower than recent years, as tariffs and counter-tariffs are expected to negate fiscal stimulus.
5. Policy Volatility Complicates Forecasting
The IMF emphasized that the unpredictability of trade and fiscal policies makes it unusually difficult to model economic outcomes.
This volatility reduces investment confidence and increases risk, further undermining the near-term economic outlook globally.
5️⃣ China Spotlight🔴
1. US Signals Softening of Tariff Policy
Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the current tariff levels are "not sustainable" and described them as a temporary "embargo."
He expects the US and China to reach a deal in the “very near future,” though emphasized that negotiations will be a long and difficult process.
President Trump echoed this tone, suggesting that tariffs “will come down substantially” and signaling potential unilateral reductions.
Proposals under discussion include cutting tariffs from 145% to 50–60%, and implementing a tiered tariff system that distinguishes between national security goods and consumer products.
2. China Remains Firm, Demanding Total Tariff Repeal
Chinese officials responded that no negotiations have taken place and insisted that the US must fully cancel all unilateral tariffs before formal talks can resume.
China’s stance indicates a demand for reciprocal de-escalation, not unilateral concession.
3. Strategic Exemptions Emerging from Both Sides
The US has exempted automotive parts from the 145% tariff to protect domestic car manufacturers, though a 25% tariff still applies and will soon expand to autos and other components.
China has exempted aerospace parts, likely to maintain progress on its domestic aviation ambitions.
China is reportedly considering further exemptions on semiconductors, drugs, and medical devices, despite maintaining a 125% general tariff on most US imports.
4. Economic Leverage Appears Skewed Toward China
Only 15% of Chinese exports are sent to the US, while many US industries depend on Chinese imports, especially intermediate goods and rare earth minerals.
The US is particularly vulnerable in medical devices and critical raw materials, creating supply chain risks and price pressures.
China’s rare earth embargo could significantly impact US manufacturing, and the trade war has already caused production slowdowns and furloughs in Chinese factories.
5. Both Sides Are Avoiding Full Decoupling….for Now
Despite tensions, both US and Chinese officials have made it clear that full decoupling is not the goal.
The strategic use of targeted exemptions signals a desire to protect critical sectors while continuing broader trade pressure.
Bessent noted that a trade breakdown "suits nobody", reflecting a shared interest in maintaining some level of economic interdependence.