The Third Cycle Curse
Do you think we are facing The Third Cycle Curse? History is about to repeat.
We are in the longest bullish divergence in altcoin market cap in history and its is about to resolve. Bullish divergences this big never end quietly.
The altcoin market just bounced off a critical support, the same level that triggered the rallies in March and November 2024.
Altcoin market just printed a major Golden Cross signal, the last time this happened, top alts did 100x.
$BTC.D is forming a textbook descending triangle. Every time this structure broke down, it unleashed a full-blown Altseason.
In fact:
$288 BILLION just poured into crypto in the past 5 days.
"OTHERS" (alts outside the Top 10) are leading and its not Bitcoin, not Ethereum.
This is exactly how the biggest altcoin rallies have always started.
Macro is adding fuel to the fire:
Tariff easing and Fed pivot talks = liquidity returning.
QT slowing down.
Multiple Altcoin ETF filings in motion.
Potential rate cuts lined up for Q2 2025 = rocket fuel.
All while the broader market still sleeps on the setup👇🧵
Weekly Updates
The Rise of the New Networks: Initia, Soul Labs
Initia has officially launched its mainnet, introducing a new era of full-stack control and seamless interoperability. Users can already claim their INIT airdrops through May 24, and onboarding is live via LayerZero and IBC Protocol — making cross-chain UX smoother than ever.
Meanwhile, Soul Labs launched its incentivized testnet, bringing real-time cross-chain lending to life. With support from LayerZero, Wormhole, and Axelar, Soul is already connected to Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Avalanche — offering users the chance to earn Seeds for future $SO allocations.
And Hyperliquid, continued its expansion: Morpho Labs deployed smart contracts to HyperEVM as part of its "Morpho Everywhere" strategy, while Bitfinex rolled out USDT0, a new cross-chain USDt-pegged asset, already live with deposit and withdrawal support on Optimism.
Building Better Foundations: LayerZero’s vApp Framework, Meteora’s DBC, and DIA xReal
LayerZero announced its vApp framework, a modular SDK empowering developers to create verifiable applications that scale across chains and even plug into Web2 systems. Early benchmarks show 95% fewer proving cycles and 30× throughput with GPU acceleration.
Over on the liquidity side, Meteora introduced its Dynamic Bonding Curve (DBC) SDK, giving launchpads like Dialect and Dealr tools to build and deploy products in just two days, a game-changer for finding product-market fit.
DIA launched xReal, an oracle suite powering over 100+ real-world assets, from stocks to commodities, into DeFi, setting a new standard for on-chain RWA data.
Expanding the Yield Frontier: Mantle’s MI4, Lombard BTC Staking, and New Vaults Across Chains
As networks grow, so does the hunger for yield.
Mantle unveiled MI4, a $400M fund tokenized via Securitize, offering diversified exposure to assets like mETH, bbSOL, and sUSDe, targeting a Q2 2025 rollout. Simultaneously, Lombard entered Phase 2 of its Bitcoin staking strategy on Babylon, unlocking permissionless BTC delegation across top Finality Providers like Figment and Galaxy.
For those looking to deploy capital today, Steakhouse Financial launched Smokehouse ETH on Morpho, offering 4% APY with gasless reward distribution. Meanwhile, Euler Finance integrated with Beefy, offering new stablecoin yield strategies, and Resolv Labs brought USR and RLP strategies to BNB Chain with up to 8.3x leverage via Stargate bridging.
The Race for Points and Airdrops: Solv, Dolomite, Rumpel Labs, Clearpool, and More
Dolomite opened claims for $DOLO, complete with new liquidity pools and staking mechanics for boosted rewards across BERA, oDOLO, and xKDK. Rumpel Labs launched Chapter 3 of its Straw rewards program, incentivizing early TVL and protocol engagement with decaying Straw emissions. Meanwhile, Clearpool’s Ozean campaign lets users pre-deposit stablecoins to farm Droplets ahead of launch.
And that’s just the start:
Solv Protocol continues its airdrop in partnership with OKX.
Infrared introduced its Points program, rewarding vault staking.
Vertex Season 2 trading rewards are live with 40,000 $AVAX.
BOB, Shadow Exchange, deBridge, Hyperlane, Wormhole, and Balance opened major airdrop claims this week too.
Farming 2.0: From Spectra, Coinshift, Dinero, and Falcon Finance
Spectra launched a GHO-USR pool on Base offering a staggering 104% baseline yield, stacking Aave yield, Balancer fees, and 45× Resolv Points. Coinshift dropped csUSDL on Pendle, creating a yield-bearing stablecoin backed by Paxos’s USDL and Morpho lending strategies.
For ETH stakers, Dinero’s superETH launched on Velodrome with farming incentives, while Falcon Finance’s USDf is now live on Bunni, offering 10% APY in the USDf/USDT pool.
Across Pendle, Beefy, Velodrome, and beyond, users are tapping into high-efficiency yield strategies — sometimes stacking multiple incentive layers at once.
The smartest farmers are chasing multi-yield strategies across chains.
Narrative Overview
Macro Noise Fades, Market Recalibrates
Trump softening his stance on China served as a convenient catalyst, but the truth is, the market was already looking for an excuse to bounce.
Too often, macro fears dominate headlines but fail to materialize in any meaningful way.
If you had tuned out for a few months, you wouldn’t even notice the supposed “crises” that had traders paralyzed just weeks ago.
The lesson here is simple: Staying overly reactive to macro noise often costs more than it saves.
Onchain behavior seems to agree. Activity has started to pick up, not uniformly, but selectively. Everything may have bounced yesterday, but everything won’t continue to perform equally going forward.
Chasing green candles without a plan is still a losing game.
Onchain Signals: Flash Crashes, Accumulation Patterns, and Strategic Plays
This past week gave us plenty of breadcrumbs to follow:
Memecoins experienced localized flash crashes, flushing out weak hands, a healthy sign, even if painful for some.
Discussions deepened around the MCP and A2A narratives, with broader interest in the Bittensor ecosystem and AI-native plays.
Quietly, a Strategy wallet accumulated 6,500 BTC ($555M worth), a significant bet on future upside.
Regulatory strategy is evolving: top crypto firms are preparing to apply for bank charters and licenses, aiming to future-proof themselves against an increasingly complex compliance landscape.
GSR’s $100M private placement into Upexi hints at Solana’s growing financialization layer.
Vitalik’s RISC-V proposal to replace EVM long-term is a bigger deal than most realize. Efficiency gains at the protocol layer could redefine what’s possible for ZK-proof powered ecosystems.
Ecosystems like Monad and MegaETH are increasingly being compared head-to-head, a reminder that new L1 wars are brewing.
Buybacks announced by Orca and Fuel show that teams are increasingly conscious of value accrual narratives, a shift that usually happens when capital rotation is about to pick up.
Meanwhile, Dolomite dropped its token $DOLO.
Bridge Flows and DEX Volumes Leaks Subtle Clues of Where Capital Wants to Be
One surprising leader in net bridge flows this week? Unichain.
When contextualized, it makes sense: Uniswap Labs’ aggressive LP incentives are driving liquidity behavior.
There’s no immediate actionable opportunity here unless you’re deep into LP farming strategies, but it’s a reminder that incentive design still moves mountains when executed properly.
On the DEX side, something odd but important happened: Gold (PAXG) volumes spiked onchain.
Historically, crypto natives buying gold signals peak fear. Ironically, that fear flipped risk-on shortly after, and the buyers who stayed nimble caught the reversal cleanly.
The Casino Is Back But It’s Selective
The onchain casino, especially on Solana, is alive again:
Fartcoin, TROLL, and DARK dominate flows.
Meanwhile, AERO and VIRTUAL are leading alt volume on Base, an encouraging sign for the ecosystem’s maturation.
Zora’s imminent launch adds even more momentum to Base, although the “Base is for everyone” branding push still feels slightly underwhelming compared to what’s actually happening on the ground.
NFTs: A Secondary Game for Now
NFT volumes have ticked up slightly — Pudgies, Punks, etc. — but they’re still underperforming ETH itself.
Liquid memes, altcoins, and narratives with clear onchain participation incentives are dominating capital flows. Flex assets like NFTs tend to run closer to market tops, not in the early innings of recoveries.
For serious capital allocators, NFTs remain a side game, not the main arena.
Net Inflows: A Return of Risk Appetite (With Selectivity)
Accumulation data offers another layer of confirmation:
Core assets like $AAVE, $ETH, $SEI, $LINK, $UNI, and even $PAXG have seen strong net inflows.
$Fartcoin pulling in $44M speaks volumes about the staying power of well-positioned memes.
$Popcat, $RAY, $ALCH, and a resurgent $BONK round out the meme resurgence.
Meanwhile, $AERO accumulation suggests that Base is quietly setting up for its next leg higher.
And AI-adjacent plays like $VIRTUAL and $VVV are getting early interest from smart wallets.
In short: the market’s risk appetite is coming back but it's choosy.
Sleuthing and ETFs
One thing that's still notably missing is the Ethereum ETF enthusiasm.
Despite price weakness and theoretically attractive valuations, the ETF bid simply isn't there yet. It’s a reminder that even blue-chip narratives can lag sentiment and why cycles matter.
At the same time, Solana’s onchain dominance, while impressive now, should be monitored carefully. If it becomes too meme-dependent without depth, it risks a third-cycle curse that has plagued many assets before.
Until then, though, the playing field remains rich with opportunities.