ToE's Weekly Highlights #44

Digging up the grinds for the week.

Oct 08, 2023

Gm ToE readers. A lovely memeish week with AVAX taking the limelight

Macro: Sticky inflation and shifting central bank policies are creating uncertainty. Key data releases will continue to drive market volatility in the near-term. Headwinds of slowing growth, tightening monetary policy, and fiscal uncertainties driving market churn across assets. Oil, autos, stocks and bonds all facing challenges of lower demand and higher costs of capital.
Trend: Cautious optimism on BTC but alts are mixed, with some outperforming on catalysts like conferences and token migrations. More choppiness expected near term but macro trend seems to be steadily upwards. SOL, AVAX, CANTO, RLB seen good moves.
Defi: Socialfi projects stealing the limelight now. $BANANA holders are printing. Angle procotol update with new RWA. ARB grants
Tools: Prevent sim swapping, Tracking tools, Life hack tools, Farms for the month, Token 2049 database,
Spicy drama: Zhu behind bars while eating mooncake, Ponzi times newsletter, Zach uncover sim swap fraud

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Segmenting the megathread of content into 5 parts:

Macro news
Trending narratives
Defi happenings
Educational resources and tools
Spicy crypto drama

1. Macro News

Sticky inflation and shifting central bank policies are creating uncertainty. Key data releases will continue to drive market volatility in the near-term.

U.S. labor market is showing signs of moderation as private payrolls undershot expectations in September. This could influence the Fed's future rate hike trajectory.
Biden administration expanded student loan forgiveness, with over $9 billion of debt cancelled so far. This provides relief to borrowers but adds to federal liabilities.
Equities rallied on weaker jobs data as it reduces likelihood of more aggressive Fed tightening. Treasury yields also declined. However, eurozone retail sales dropped sharply in August, pointing to impact of higher rates.
Upcoming U.S. jobs data including nonfarm payrolls will be closely watched to gauge strength of labor market. Markets seem positioned for some Fed pivot on policy, but will react to data confirming or disputing this view.

Headwinds of slowing growth, tightening monetary policy, and fiscal uncertainties driving market churn across assets. Oil, autos, stocks and bonds all facing challenges of lower demand and higher costs of capital.

Oil prices dropped sharply on concerns about slowing global growth and higher interest rates. Prices fell below $82/barrel, reversing previous gains. Production cuts by OPEC+ unable to stem declines.
Negative equity on U.S. car loans rising as used car values fall from pandemic highs. Trade-in vehicles now underwater by ~$5,820 on average, creating challenges for dealers and buyers.
Surging Treasury yields up to 2007 highs weighing on equities like S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow amid Fed hawkishness. Investors shifting to guaranteed returns.
Treasury yield volatility spiking as measured by MOVE index, signaling continued turbulence ahead in bond markets.

@arndxt_xo on macro pulse

@_FabianHD on macro schedule

@JSeyff list all the ETH ETF

Depression worse than 2008

@fejau_inc launches his macro newsletter

2. Trending Narratives

Cautious optimism on BTC but alts are mixed, with some outperforming on catalysts like conferences and token migrations. More choppiness expected near term but macro trend seems to be steadily upwards.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been slowly trending upwards over the past 30 days, currently around $27,800. There are some bullish signs like the large spot buy this week, but moves get retraced quickly. The overall trend looks bullish but we may see one more dip below $24k before heading to $35k+.
Ethereum (ETH) is slightly down this week to $1,640, with ETHBTC continuing to trend down. The VanEck ETH futures ETF launch had low volume. ETH may continue to underperform BTC in the short term but should outperform longer term.
Solana (SOL) outperformed with a +16% gain this week likely due to a short squeeze as traders were trapped in their short positions. SOL has consistently outperformed on pumps this year.
Avalanche (AVAX) also saw strong double digit gains this week thanks to the new Stars Arena platform built on it. This could mark a reversal after months of bleeding vs BTC.
Canto (CANTO) pumped 63% as its migration to a Polygon zk-Rollup was announced. The RWA narrative may be benefiting it.
Chainlink's (LINK) SmartCon conference boosted its price in the preceding weeks, though it did see some sell the news dumping.
Wilder World (WLD) couldn't break $2 and you are looking to short it again on a bounce from $1.5.
SwissBorg's (CHSB) token migration starting on Oct 17 has pumped its price 30%+.
Su Zhu's arrest impacted Open Exchange (OX) negatively but it may be a risky buy opportunity at current lows.
Rollbit (RLB) held up well after the onchain summer dump. Their new on-chain buyback transparency is positive.

@schizoxbt interviews @rektdiomedes